Boise State Broncos (0-0) vs. South Florida Bulls (0-0)
August 28, 2025 12:00 am EDT
The Line: South Florida Bulls +6.5 / Boise State Broncos -6.5; Over/Under: 63.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Boise State Broncos and the USF Bulls meet in week 1 college football action from Raymond James Stadium on Thursday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boise State vs. USF prediction.
Boise State Recap
The Boise State Broncos will be out to replicate their success from the 2024 campaign, finishing the year with an overall record of 12-2 including a 7-0 mark in Mountain West conference play. The Broncos knocked off UNLV in the Mountain West championship and earned the inaugural group of 5 playoff spot in the college football playoff, but were upended by Penn State 31-14 in the Fiesta Bowl. It’ll be up to Boise State to move on from Ashton Jeanty, who dominated on the ground last season, but Maddux Madsen is back to provide some stability at QB for the Broncos, throwing for over 3,000 yards, 23 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while completing 62% of his passes. Sire Gaines is expected to fill Jeanty’s void and Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod will likely see some action as well. The Broncos also bring back Matt Lauter after an all-American season at tight end while Ty Benefield is back for Boise’s defense after leading the Broncos with 82 total tackles.
Why the Boise State Broncos will win
- South Florida has lost each of its last 19 games against AP-ranked teams.
- Boise State has won each of its last 11 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- South Florida has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four season openers as an underdog.
USF Recap
The USF Bulls come into the 2025 season looking to take another step forward after a solid 2024 campaign, finishing the season with a 6-6 overall record including a 4-4 record in AAC conference play. The Bulls would head to the Hawaii Bowl and get the 5OT win over San Jose State for their second straight bowl game victory. Byrum Brown is back with a clean bill of health after looking solid in limited action in 2024, throwing for 836 yards and 2 touchdowns as well as rushing for 269 yards and 3 TDs in 6 games last season. The Bulls have to do some retooling with the skill position players, losing their top three rushers from last season and Sean Atkins who was USF’s best receiver last season. The Bulls do bring back Keshaun Singleton, who logged 428 receiving yards and 3 TDs and the Bulls raided the transfer portal to rebuild the receiver room. On defense, USF brings back a fair number of pieces, but they’re pieces from a team that sat 12th in the AAC in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. That being said, Mac Harris is back after leading the Bulls with 82 total tackles along with 12 TFLs and 4 sacks. Tavin Ward’s also back after recording 3 INTs and finishing second with 62 tackles.
Why the South Florida Bulls will win
- Boise State has lost five of its last six road games against non-conference opponents.
- South Florida has won three of its last four games.
- South Florida has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
- Boise State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six road games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of South Florida’s last eight season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Boise State’s last four road games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Boise State vs. USF Prediction
I’m looking at Boise State here. It’s never easy to lay points on the road to start the year, but this is a Boise State program that keeps churning out talent and the show goes on regardless of who is in and out every year. I still have my concerns about USF’s defense and until I see them put it all together, I have to go with the more proven commodity, and that’s Boise State.
