Southern Mississippi vs Mississippi State Prediction Football Picks Today 8/30/25

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Southern Miss Golden Eagles meet Saturday in college football action from Roberts Stadium. Here’s a Southern Miss vs Mississippi State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Southern Miss vs Mississippi State pick.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Needless to say, Mississippi State has a lot of room for improvement in 2025. The Bulldogs had a rough campaign last year, with things falling apart following an opener victory versus Eastern Kentucky. Mississippi State would rate off seven straight losses after that before finally bagging another win versus UMass to kick off November. Three more losses to Tennessee, Missouri and Ole Miss marked the end of a dismal campaign amid a very difficult conference. Mississippi State would ultimately finish at just 2-10 overall and 0-8 in the conference. You can probably guess where that put the Bulldogs in the standings: dead last. Their nearest competitors were Oklahoma (2-6) Auburn (2-6) and Kentucky (1-7), leaving Mississippi State with the sole distinction of a winless conference schedule.

Let’s (quickly) turn the page over to 2025 and forget about all that, shall we? Looking ahead to this year, the Bulldogs are giving Jeff Lebby another shot in his second year as head coach. Lebby will be joined by second-year defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler, so there’s at least some consistency on the sidelines and nowhere to go but up. Does that mean Mississippi State has a shot at a bowl game? Nah, that would be highly, highly doubtful unless the Bulldogs rattle off a dream season. Still, there are four or five very winnable games on the schedule in 2025, starting with this one. With a healthy Blake Shapen at QB, Mississippi State can certainly take a big step forward.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles Betting Preview

Over on the Southern Miss side, they (somehow) performed even worse than the Bulldogs last season. The Golden Eagles couldn’t meet their fairly low expectations despite beating Southeastern Louisiana in their second game of the year. Every other game was a loss—most of them coming in the form of a blowout. Southern Miss couldn’t get anything going on either side of the ball, resulting in a 10-game losing streak to finish off the calendar. If you’re keeping track at home, that gave the Golden Eagles a 1-11 overall record and a dismal 0-8 run in the Sun Belt games. It doesn’t take a math major to figure out that mark put Southern Miss in last place among the West Division and the conference. Their nearest division foes were Troy and LA-Monroe (both 3-5). The Eagles were even worse than Georgia State at 1-7 (themselves in the basement of the East Division). During the slide, head coach Will Hall was shown the door on October 20, going 14-30 through his four years (and only one winning campaign).

The good news for Southern Miss is that they’ve got a fresh coaching staff on the sideline and renewed expectations which have them improving in the standings this season. Charles Huff will take the reins for his first year, and he’ll be joined by new arrival Jason Semore at DC. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson is back to provide a bit of consistency for his unit. Naturally, the Eagles lose a ton of players via the transfer portal (including QB Tate Rodemaker, who is off to Western Carolina), but they’ve reloaded with some pretty intriguing names. One of those is WR Micah Davis, who comes along from Ole Miss (with RB Matt Jones as well).

Why the Southern Miss Golden Eagles will win

• Mississippi State has lost each of its last seven road games.
• Southern Miss has won each of its last three home games against teams from Mississippi.
• Southern Miss has covered the spread in seven of its last eight home openers.
• Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win

• Southern Miss has lost each of its last 10 games.
• Mississippi State has won each of its last eight season openers.
• Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last four road games.
• Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four completed games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
• Southern Miss has lost the first half in each of its last eight games against opponents from the Southeastern Conference.
• Mississippi State has won the first quarter in six of its last eight games against opponents from the Sun Belt Conference.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of Mississippi State’s last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of Southern Miss’ last five games against teams from Mississippi have gone OVER the total points line.

Southern Miss vs Mississippi State Prediction

I’m going to stick with the Bulldogs. This opener is a battle of two teams who each vastly underperformed a season ago, and one of them will come away from this matchup with some much-needed early momentum. I’m probably more bullish (no pun intended) on Mississippi State than most people, however their success depends on their roster health (especially with Shapen returning from a shoulder injury) and the performance of a very young roster. Eighty percent of the team is in their first or second year with the program. The bad news is that MS State has a very tough schedule; the good news is that they’re starting with a winnable game.