Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss vs Baylor 1/1/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Ole Miss Rebels and Baylor Bears square off Saturday night in the college football Sugar Bowl at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

The Baylor Bears come into this bowl game representing the Big 12 as the conference champions after going 11-1 in the regular season and taking down Oklahoma State in the conference championship game, 21-16. Gerry Bohanon has thrown for 2,160 yards, 17 TDs and 6 interceptions on 64.3% passing while Abram Smith has a team-high 1.366 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns and Trestan Ebner has 748 rushing yards as well this season. Tyquan Thornton has a team-high 55 catches for 875 yards and 8 TDs while R.J. Sneed has 555 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. Ben Sims and Drew Estrada each have 300+ receiving yards as well for Baylor this season. On defense, Terrel Bernard has a team-high 76 total tackles and 5 sacks while JT Woods has 3 interceptions and Gabe Hall has 5 sacks as well this season.

The Ole Miss Rebels come into this game on behalf of the SEC after going 10-2 in the regular season. Matt Corral has thrown for 3,339 yards, 20 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 68.4% passing while also posting 597 rushing yards and 11 TDs this season. Jerrion Ealy leads Ole Miss in rushing with 703 rushing yards along with 5 scores while Snoop Conner has 605 rushing yards with a team-high 13 TDs and Henry Parrish Jr. has 542 rushing yards as well this season. Dontario Drummond leads Ole Miss in receiving with 924 receiving yards on 67 grabs and 8 TDs while Braylon Sanders has 512 receiving yards this season. Two more Rebels have at least 300 receiving yards and another three have 200+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Chance Campbell leads the Rebels with 99 total tackles while also chipping in 6 sacks. Sam Williams leads Ole Miss with 12.5 sacks and AJ Finley has a team-high 3 interceptions as well this season.

Baylor is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. Ole Miss is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games while the under is 7-0 in their last 7 games overall.

It’s so hard to not back the Bears given how well Dave Aranda has this Bears team playing defense, but the Bears, even playing in the Big 12, haven’t faced anything like what Matt Corral and this Rebels offense brings to the table. The Rebels are a threat to put up 50+ points any time Corral is on the field and this game will be no different. I just don’t see Baylor having the horses to go score for score with Ole Miss so give me the Rebels here.