TCU vs Arkansas State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/19/26

The Arkansas State Red Wolves and TCU Horned Frogs meet Saturday in week 3 college football action at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Here’s a TCU vs. Arkansas State Prediction. This article will include a TCU vs. Arkansas State Pick.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves beat West Georgia, lost to Memphis, and they play Kennesaw State next. Arkansas State has won 7 of its last 10 games. Trey Owens is completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 460 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Chauncy Cobb and Hunter Summers have combined for 236 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Kenyon Clay has 4 receptions.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves ground game is averaging 182.5 yards per contest, and Kenyon Clay leads the way with 99 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Arkansas State is allowing 24.5 points and 384.5 yards per game. Robert Stevens leads the Arkansas State Red Wolves with 15 tackles, Ryan Reese has 0.5 sacks, and Five Hamilton has 1 interception.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview

The TCU Horned Frogs lost to North Carolina, beat Grambling, and they play UCF next. The TCU Horned Frogs have won 6 of their last 9 games. Jaden Craig is completing 69.8 percent of his passes for 566 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Ed Small and Kari Ashley have combined for 302 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jeremy Scott has 6 receptions.

The TCU Horned Frogs’ ground game is averaging 195.5 yards per contest, and Jeremy Payne leads the way with 221 yards on 34 carries. Defensively, TCU is allowing 11 points and 266 yards per game. Max Carroll leads the TCU Horned Frogs with 14 tackles, Ansel Din-Mbuh has 2 sacks, and Teon Parks has 1 interception.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win

• Arkansas State has lost 12 of its last 13 road games in September.
• TCU has won each of its last six games against non-conference opponents at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
• TCU has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games in Texas.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five road games in September.
• TCU has won the first quarter in each of its last six games against non-conference opponents at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
• TCU has won the first half in each of its last eight home games in September.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won three of its last four games as a road underdog.
• Arkansas State has covered the spread in six of its last seven games as an underdog.
• Arkansas State has won the first quarter in four of its last five September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Arkansas State’s last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of TCU’s last six September games as a favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Jeremy Payne ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Jaylen Bonelli ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• TCU ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• TCU ranks T2nd among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (1.5).
• Arkansas State ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Arkansas State ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).

TCU vs Arkansas State Prediction

Arkansas State has the passing attack to give this TCU secondary some problems, but the Red Wolves are sure to struggle in the trenches. TCU is going to get pressure against a shaky Arkansas State offensive line and should be able to control the ground game on the other side. Memphis was able to do whatever it wanted offensively against Arkansas State, and TCU should be able to do similar things. The line isn’t that outrageous. I’ll take TCU by three touchdowns.