TCU vs Louisiana Prediction 12-28-24 College Football Picks

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns and the TCU Horned Frogs meet Saturday in New Mexico Bowl college football action from University Stadium. Here’s a TCU vs Louisiana prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best TCU vs Louisiana pick.

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Betting Preview

Louisiana took out Grambling, Kennesaw State, Wake Forest, Southern Miss, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Texas State, and Arkansas State during a nice 8-1 opening run. It’s been a 2-2 stretch in the last four games though, as the Cajuns have fallen to South Alabama and Marshall.

In the Sun Belt Championship Game versus Marshall, the Cajuns gave up points in every quarter during a flat 31-3 blowout loss. QB Daniel Beale did most of the throwing on just 95 yards and a pick. Zylan Perry led a tiny rush attack on 25 yards off six carries.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview

Over on the TCU side, they took out Stanford, Long Island U, Kansas, Utah, and Texas Tech during a 5-3 start this year. The Frogs would then fall to Baylor before wins versus Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati.

Matched up against the Bearcats on November 30, the Frogs came into the fourth quarter with a 20-7 edge. TCU was able to hang on for a 20-13 victory in the end. Josh Hoover finished with 212 yards and an interception. Tops in receiving was Blake Nowell with 75 yards off three catches.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win

• The favorite has won each of Louisiana’s last seven Bowl games.
• Louisiana has lost each of its last three games in December.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of TCU’s last four games.
• Louisiana has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four Bowl games as an underdog.

Why the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns will win

• Louisiana has won eight of its last 10 games.
• TCU has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
• Louisiana has covered the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Louisiana has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
• Louisiana has won the first half in eight of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Six of TCU’s last seven games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of Louisiana’s last five games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• TCU ranks 3rd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (80.0).
• TCU ranks 7th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (317.6).
• Louisiana ranks 134th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (100.0).
• Louisiana ranks 132nd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (76.5).

TCU vs Louisiana Prediction

I’ll take a stab at Louisiana here. The Cajuns certainly need a bounce-back effort after getting drilled by Marshall, however. Louisiana mustered just 255 total yards (199 passing) and 11 first downs in the defeat, combined with nine penalties for 98 yards. The Cajuns are generally a much better scoring team, though; they’ve hit 33 or more points in nine of 13 outings this year. The passing game (260.5 yards per game) and rush attack (170.5 yards per game) are normally pretty well-balanced also.

As for TCU, they failed to score in the second half against a middling Cincinnati team in their last outing. The Frogs would eventually post 17 first downs and 336 total yards (212 passing) but it was their lowest points total since October 19 (13) in a win over Utah. TCU averages 33.6 points per game this year and has a nice passing attack (317.6 yards per game). Louisiana is going to need to monopolize time of possession while they’ve got the ball, but I think the Cajuns stand a decent chance at being competitive here.