
TCU vs SMU Prediction Football Picks 9-23-23
TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) vs SMU Mustangs (2-1)
2023-09-23 12:00:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: TCU Horned Frogs -6 -- Over/Under: 64
(Get latest betting odds)
The SMU Mustangs and the TCU Horned Frogs meet in week 4 college football action from Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
SMU Shuts Out Prairie View A&M
The SMU Mustangs took care of business against Prairie View A&M last time out to improve to 2-1 on the year thanks to a 69-0 win over the Panthers last time out. Preston Stone has thrown for 798 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 62.7% passing while LJ Johnson Jr. leads the Mustangs with 153 rushing yards and Jaylan Knighton has 140 rushing yards as well. Jake Bailey has a team-high 136 receiving yards while three more SMU receivers have at least 100 receiving yards this season. On defense, Jonathan McGill and Ahmad Walker each have a team-high 15 total tackles while Elijah Roberts leading with 3 sacks and Alex Kilgore and Nelson Paul each logging a pair of sacks as well.
SMU Mustangs Team Facts
SMU has won 16 of its last 18 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
SMU has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as a road underdog.
SMU has won the first quarter in six of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.
Four of SMU’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
TCU Stymies Houston
The TCU Horned Frogs got above .500 for the first time this year, improving to 2-1 thanks to a 36-13 win over Houston last time out. Chandler Morris has thrown for 856 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions while Emani Bailey has a team-high 357 rushing yards and Trey Sanders has 107 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. JP Richardson leads TCU’s receivers with 13 grabs for 147 yards while Warren Thompson has 10 grabs for 143 yards and a touchdown. On defense, Namdi Obiazor has a team-high 22 total tackles while Johnny Hodges has 21 total tackles and a pair of sacks. Paul Oyewale also has a team-high 3 sacks this season as part of TCU’s 13 sacks as a team this year.
TCU Horned Frogs Team Facts
TCU has won nine of its last 10 games at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
The road team has covered the spread in each of the last eight games between SMU and TCU.
TCU has won the first half in six of its last eight games against opponents from the American Athletic Conference.
Fifteen of TCU’s last 18 September home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
TCU ranked 5th among FBS teams for Q1 points per game last season (10.3).
TCU was one of only six FBS teams to remain undefeated in road games last season (6-0) (min. 8 games).
SMU ranked T4th among FBS teams for Q1 win percentage last season (.692).
SMU ranked 12th among FBS teams for points per game last season (37.2).
Chris’ Pick
I’m rolling with the over here. Sure, the defenses on both sides have been decent the last couple of weeks, and give SMU some credit for holding Oklahoma to just 28 points, but I still have TCU’s performance in the back of my mind against Colorado where they were picked apart and I think last week was more about Houston not executing. SMU’s got a solid arm in Preston Stone that can move the ball and Chandler Morris has been solid leading this TCU offense. I think this one is all about offense, so I’ll side with the over.