SMU Mustangs (2-1) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (2-0)
September 20, 2025 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: TCU Horned Frogs -6.5 / SMU Mustangs 6.5; Over/Under: 64.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The SMU Mustangs and TCU Horned Frogs meet Saturday in college football action at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Here’s a TCU vs SMU Prediction. This article will include a TCU vs SMU Pick.
SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
The SMU Mustangs lost to Baylor, beat Missouri State, and they play Syracuse next. SMU has won 11 of its last 14 games. Kevin Jennings is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 836 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Romello Brinson and Jalen Cooper have combined for 544 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while RJ Maryland has 8 receptions.
The SMU Mustangs ground game is averaging 156.7 yards per contest, and T.J. Harden leads the way with 253 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, SMU is allowing 23.7 points and 426.7 yards per game. Isaiah Nwokobia leads the SMU Mustangs with 21 tackles, Jeffrey M’ba has 2.5 sacks and Ahmaad Moses has 1 interception.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview
The TCU Horned Frogs beat North Carolina and Abilene Christian, and they play Arizona State next. The TCU Horned Frogs have won 6 straight games. Josh Hoover is completing 76.2 percent of his passes for 621 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jordan Dwyer and Joseph Manjack IV have combined for 363 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Eric McAlister has 5 receptions.
The TCU Horned Frogs ground game is averaging 193 yards per contest, and Kevorian Barnes leads the way with 156 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, TCU is allowing 17.5 points and 337.5 yards per game. Jamel Johnson leads the TCU Horned Frogs with 14 tackles, Ansel Din-Mbuh has 1.5 sacks and Bud Clark has 1 interception.
SMU Mustangs @ TCU Horned Frogs Betting Trends: Week 4
Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win
- TCU has won each of its last six games.
- SMU has lost three of its last four road games in September.
- SMU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games.
- The favorite has covered the spread in six of TCU’s last seven games.
- TCU has won the first quarter in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
- TCU has won the first half in each of its last four games against non-conference opponents at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Why the SMU Mustangs will win
- SMU has won nine of its last 10 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- TCU has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games against teams from Texas.
- The road team has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 games between SMU and TCU.
- SMU has won the first half in six of its last seven games against non-conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Each of TCU’s last five games in September have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of SMU’s last five road games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, D’Andre Rogers ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Cameron Robertson leads the league for forced fumbles (2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- TCU ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- TCU ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
- SMU has had a lower time of possession than its opponents in each of its last 12 games – longest active streak in the FBS.
- SMU ranks 134th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (319.7).
TCU vs SMU Prediction
SMU is a good team that can score the football, but I’m concerned about a pass defense that’s 133rd in the country. TCU is one of the most balanced offenses in the country and is explosive through the air. If SMU doesn’t clean things up on the back end, TCU will have a field day offensively. At home, Baylor racked up more than 600 yards of offense and had two receivers go over 100 receiving yards. Dwyer and company should be drooling about this matchup. TCU has covered 5 of its last 6 games as a favorite. We’re getting the line just under a full touchdown. I have to roll with TCU at home.
