North Texas Mean Green (6-6) vs. Texas State Bobcats (7-5)
January 3, 2025 4:00 pm EDT
The Line: Texas State Bobcats -13.5 / North Texas Mean Green +13.5; Over/Under: +61.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The North Texas Mean Green and the Texas State Bobcats meet in the First Responder Bowl in college football action from Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Friday afternoon. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Texas State vs North Texas Prediction.
North Texas Recap
The North Texas Mean Green come into this game on behalf of the AAC, finishing the year with an overall record of 6-6 this season. North Texas will be looking for their first bowl win since 2013, having lost their last 6 bowl appearances.
Mean Green Push Forward Without Several Key Pieces
The Mean Green will have to forge ahead without starting QB Chandler Morris, who threw for 3,774 yards, 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions as well as top receiver DT Sheffield, who recorded 822 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns this season. The QB duties will likely be left to true freshman Drew Mestemaker who went just 4 of 5 for 69 yards this season. The good news is it looks like starting RB Shane Porter could play after logging 643 rushing yards with 5 TDs this season. Porter entered the portal but he’s listed on the depth chart for this game for UNT. The Mean Green will also be without their starting TE Oscar Hammond and starting C Tyler Mercer as well as LG Leke Asenuga who was injured at times this season for the Mean Green.
Why the North Texas Mean Green will win
- North Texas has won five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
- Texas State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
Texas State Recap
The Texas State Bobcats come into this bowl game on behalf of the Sun Belt at 7-5 on the year. Texas State will look to make it 2 for 2 in bowl games under G.J. Kinne after winning last year’s First Responder Bowl against Rice.
Bobcats Looking For Answers Themselves
The Bobcats have a fair amount of returning production for this game, at least an advantage over North Texas in terms of the amount of returning production, but the Bobcats do lose their starting RB Ismail Mahdi who had 991 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns this season. The Bobcats will also be without RT Alex Harkey as well as top CB Josh Eaton and a pair of defensive tackles in Terry Webb and Tavian Coleman who both hit the transfer portal. The big thing to watch for in this game is how much we see of Texas State QB Jordan McCloud. There’s been rumblings that he will see limited action in this game and would be replaced fairly early in this game, so if you’re planning on backing the Bobcats, just be forewarned.
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- North Texas has lost each of its last six games against non-conference opponents at neutral venues.
- The favorite has won 10 of North Texas’ last 11 games.
- North Texas has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games.
- Texas State has covered the spread in each of its last four games against opponents from the American Athletic Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Eleven of North Texas’ last 12 games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Texas State’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Texas State vs North Texas Prediction
With all of that said, I feel comfortable backing the under here. I know it’s a crazy take considering the offensive outbursts that both teams had more often than not this season. Still, there’s just so much uncertainty and missing talent on both sides that it’s somewhat hard to see where points will come from here. This for me feels like a game that hits the mid 50s at best so give me the under.
