Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction 11-16-24 College Football Picks
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-7) vs. Texas State Bobcats (4-4)
November 16, 2024 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Texas State Bobcats -26.5 / Southern Miss Golden Eagles +26.5; Over/Under: +55.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles and Texas State Bobcats meet Saturday in week 12 college football action at Bobcat Stadium. Here’s a Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction. This article will include a Texas State vs Southern Miss Pick.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles Betting Preview
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles lost to James Madison and Marshall, and they will play South Alabama next. Southern Mississippi has lost 5 straight road games. Ethan Crawford is completing 40.9 percent of his passes for 842 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Larry Simmons and Tiaquelin Mims have combined for 594 receiving yards on 42 catches, while Dannis Jackson has 10 receptions.
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ground game is averaging 109.2 yards per contest, and Rodrigues Clark leads the way with 402 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Southern Mississippi is allowing 34.2 points and 427.6 yards per game. Tre Pinkney leads the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles with 60 tackles, Ryan Johnson has 3 sacks and Dylan Lawrence has 2 interceptions.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
The Texas State Bobcats lost to Louisiana, beat UL Monroe, and they play Georgia State next. Texas State has won 3 of its last 5 home games. Jordan McCloud is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 2,035 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Joey Hobert and Jaden Williams have combined for 1,008 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, while Kole Wilson has 30 receptions.
The Texas State Bobcats ground game is averaging 200.7 yards per contest, and Ismail Mahdi leads the way with 773 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Texas State is allowing 22 points and 344.4 yards per game. Jordan Polk leads the Texas State Bobcats with 49 tackles, Kalil Alexander has 5.5 sacks and Bobby Crosby has 1 interception.
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- The favorite has won each of Southern Miss’ last 11 games.
- Southern Miss has lost each of its last 10 games as an underdog.
- The favorite has covered the spread in eight of Southern Miss’ last 10 completed games.
- Southern Miss has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Southern Miss has lost the first half in each of its last six games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Southern Miss’ last eight November games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of Texas State’s last six November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas State ranks 2nd among FBS teams for Q1 points per game this season (11.8).
- Texas State ranks 3rd among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+8.8).
- Southern Miss ranks 133rd among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (6.5).
- Southern Miss ranks 133rd among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-7.4).
Texas State vs Southern Miss Prediction
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are one of the worst teams in college football, as they’re 131st in scoring offense and 118th in scoring defense. Southern Miss is 3-6 ATS on the season despite being big underdogs weekly. Texas State has underachieved for the most part but was expected to be the team to beat in the conference, so the talent is there to dominate games like this. Also, Texas State has won and covered each of its last 5 games as a double-digit favorite. Those games were won by an average of 30 points. Give me Texas State.
