Troy Trojans (3-2) vs. Texas State Bobcats (3-2)
October 11, 2025 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Texas State Bobcats -9.5 / Troy Trojans 9.5; Over/Under: 54.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Troy Trojans and Texas State Bobcats meet Saturday in college football action at UFCU Stadium. Here’s a Texas State vs Troy Prediction. This article will include a Texas State vs Troy Pick.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
The Troy Trojans beat Buffalo and South Alabama, and play UL Monroe next. Troy has won 6 of its last 9 games. Tucker Kilcrease is completing 50 percent of his passes for 416 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Roman Mothershed and Tray Taylor have combined for 359 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Rara Thomas has 11 receptions.
The Troy Trojans ground game is averaging 154 yards per contest, and Tae Meadows leads the way with 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Troy is allowing 23.2 points and 328.4 yards per game. Devin Lafayette leads the Troy Trojans with 51 tackles, Donnie Smith has 3 sacks and Jaquez White has 1 interception.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
The Texas State Bobcats lost to Arkansas State, beat Nicholls, and they play Marshall next. Texas State has won 7 of its last 10 games. Brad Jackson is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,094 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. have combined for 634 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, while Kyle Evans has 11 receptions.
The Texas State Bobcats ground game is averaging 235 yards per contest, and Lincoln Pare leads the way with 468 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Texas State is allowing 26.2 points and 382 yards per game. Treylin Payne leads the Texas State Bobcats with 37 tackles, Kalil Alexander has 2 sacks and Khamari Terrell has 1 interception.
Why the Texas State Bobcats will win
- Texas State has won each of its last four games in Texas.
- Troy has lost three of its last four road games against conference opponents.
- Texas State has covered the spread in each of its last three games against teams from Alabama.
- Troy has lost the first half in each of its last four road games against conference opponents.
Why the Troy Trojans will win
- Texas State has lost each of its last three October games as a favorite.
- Troy has won 11 of its last 12 games against teams from Texas.
- Troy has covered the spread in six of its last seven road games in October.
- Texas State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games in October.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Texas State’s last 10 games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of Troy’s last six games against conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Lincoln Pare ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 7, Evan Crenshaw ranks 4th amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (48.9) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas State ranks 12th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.8).
- Texas State ranks T125th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (1).
- Troy ranks 131st among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-6.2).
- Troy ranks T130th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (2.0).
Texas State vs Troy Prediction
Troy is coming off a couple of nice wins, but its offense isn’t good overall, and it’s folded whenever playing good teams. Troy is 117th in total offense and 104th in scoring offense. Troy also has issues stopping the run. Texas State has been one of the more talented teams in the Sun Belt for a while and will be eager to rebound after a horrible loss to Arkansas State. If Texas State plays to the level it’s capable of, Troy just doesn’t have the offensive horsepower to respond. Thick number, but give me Texas State in a home blowout victory.
