UL Monroe Warhawks (3-7) vs. Texas State Bobcats (4-6)
November 22, 2025 5:00 pm EDT
The Line: Texas State Bobcats -18.5; Over/Under: 54.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and the Texas State Bobcats meet Saturday in college football action from UFCU Stadium. Here’s a Texas State vs LA-Monroe prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Texas State vs LA-Monroe pick.
LA-Monroe Warhawks Betting Preview
This year the Warhawks opened on a 3-1 run with a loss to Alabama (in a blowout) among wins over St. Francis PA, UTEP and Arkansas State. LA-Monroe would then hit the skids over the next five, falling to Northwestern, Coastal Carolina, Troy, Southern Miss and Old Dominion. In the loss to the Monarchs 31-6 on November 1, the Warhawks had 11 team penalties, two turnovers, 161 pass yards, 11 first downs and a futile 0-of-13 run on third-down conversion attempts. The defense gave up 391 yards and 20 first downs on the other side as well.
In their matchup with South Alabama last weekend, the Warhawks were looking good on a 14-0 lead following the first quarter. Unfortunately LA-Monroe was finished scoring from there and ended up losing 26-14 after surrendering points in every other quarter. QB Aidan Armenta was 10-of-19 for 82 yards and a pick while tops in rushing was Braylon McReynolds with 12 carries for 52 yards and a TD. Julian Nixon caught two balls for 31 yards in the loss as well.
Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Over on the Bobcats’ side, they opened with a 3-1 run as well featuring a loss to Arizona State alongside wins versus Eastern Michigan, UTSA and Nicholls State. Texas State would also hit a long losing streak in the aftermath, falling to Arkansas State, Troy, Marshall, James Madison and Louisiana. In the 42-39 result versus the Cajuns, the Bobcats posted 528 total yards with 9.3 yards per play and 22 first downs but also had a couple of turnovers and committed 11 team penalties for 114 yards. The defense gave up 12-of-19 on third downs to the Cajuns.
Matched up against Southern Miss over the weekend, the Bobcats posted a nice effort. Texas State was up 27-0 by the break and cruised to an eventual 41-14 blowout win on the road. QB Brad Jackson finished 14-of-17 for 192 yards and a score while also rushing 16 times for 49 yards and two more touchdowns. Lincoln Pare added 21 carries for 118 yards and a score while leading receiver Chris Dawn had five grabs for 117 yards and a touchdown.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks @ Texas State Bobcats Betting Trends: Week 13
Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts
- Brad Jackson has recorded a 120.0+ passer rating in two consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 13, Dylan Howell ranks T8th in the Sun Belt Conference for sacks (4.0) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Texas State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
- Texas State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
- Louisiana-Monroe ranks T132nd among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (6.7).
- Louisiana-Monroe ranks 132nd among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (30.3).
Texas State vs LA-Monroe Prediction
I’ll stay with Texas State. The Bobcats put together a very nice effort versus a good Southern Miss team over the weekend, posting 449 total yards, 257 rush yards, 6.6 yards per play and 25 first downs in the blowout road win. The defense gave up 391 yards and 20 first downs with 10-of-18 on third-down tries to the Eagles but also came up with three takeaways. Texas State had coughed up 31 or more points in five straight games (all losses) prior to that, so a 14-point effort on the road was quite impressive.
As for LA-Monroe, they wilted after the first half in the South Alabama game last weekend. The Warhawks finished with just 154 total yards, 82 pass yards, 3.6 yards per play, nine first downs, 1-of-9 on third-down tries (and 0-of-2 on fourth downs) and eight team penalties. The defense was on the field for 37:25 of game time thanks to 200 rushing yards, 24 first downs and 7-of-15 on third-down conversions allowed. It’s a bit odd that the Warhawks lost by only 12 points. In any case, LA-Monroe has just 20 points over the last two games combined so they’ve got their work cut out for them.
