Texas Tech vs Baylor Prediction 10-19-24 College Football Picks
Baylor Bears (2-4) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-1)
October 19, 2024 4:00 pm EDT
The Line: Texas Tech Red Raiders -6.5 / Baylor Bears +6.5; Over/Under: +58.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Baylor Bears and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will meet Saturday in college football action from Jones AT&T Stadium. Here’s a Texas Tech vs Baylor prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Texas Tech vs Baylor pick.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
The Bears’ season kicked off with a 45-3 blowout win over Tarleton State, then came a 23-12 loss to a great Utah team. Baylor would beat Air Force 31-3, but then fell to Colorado 38-31 (OT) and BYU 34-28 in the next pair.
The Bears took another loss in their last outing, this time versus Iowa State. Baylor gave up 30 points across the second and third quarters for an eventual 43-21 result. Sawyer Robertson threw for 258 yards and three scores with an interception. Ketron Jackson caught five balls for 66 yards and a score.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview
Over on the Red Raiders’ side, they’ve only got one blemish on the card so far. That defeat came 37-16 versus Washington State back on September 7. Otherwise it’s been wins over Abilene Christian, North Texas, Arizona State, Cincinnati and Arizona.
In their October 5 matchup with Arizona, Texas Tech gave up 13 unanswered points in the third quarter but ended up rallying for a 28-22 result. Behren Morton threw for 214 yards on 17 completions, but Tahj Brooks did most of the work with 21 carries for 128 yards and three scores.
Why the Texas Tech Red Raiders will win
- Texas Tech has won each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams at Jones AT&T Stadium.
- Baylor has lost 10 of its last 11 games against conference opponents.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games.
- Texas Tech has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- Texas Tech has lost three of its last four October games as a favorite.
- Texas Tech has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six October games at Jones AT&T Stadium.
- Baylor has covered the spread in three of its last four October games as a road underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Baylor’s last four road games in October have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of Texas Tech’s last nine games against conference opponents at Jones AT&T Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
Texas Tech vs Baylor Prediction
I’m leaning toward Texas Tech. The Red Raiders offense wasn’t exactly at its best in the road win over Arizona. Texas Tech posted 331 yards (214 passing) with just 14 first downs, two lost fumbles and a rough 2-of-11 rate on third downs. The defense came through with three takeaways and 3-of-14 allowed on third-down tries themselves, though.
As for Baylor, they were playing from behind against a good Iowa State team for most of their last game. The Bears gave up 542 yards (265 rushing) and 27 first downs in the loss. Texas Tech probably won’t reach those lofty offensive heights but I still like the Raiders to cover if they play to their capabilities.