Texas vs Florida Prediction Football Picks Today 10/17/26

In this article we will formulate a Texas vs Florida prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 17th at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 7 matchup. 

Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

The Texas Longhorns are 4-1 (1-1) this year after they lost to Oklahoma by a score of 27-24 last week. Texas led 17-7 at halftime and they were tied at 24 with about six minutes left, but they allowed a field goal as time expired for the loss. The Longhorns out gained OU by a total of 382-238, went 3-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Arch Manning threw for 260 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Cam Coleman caught five passes for 110 yards and one score. Derrek Cooper rushed eight times for 41 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Texas defeated Tennessee by a score of 20-17 and UTSA by a score of 30-6. The Longhorns have scored 31.4 points per game with 237.0 passing yards and 142.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 16.0 points against per game this season. Arch Manning has thrown for 1,122 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions this year. 

Florida Gators Betting Preview

The Florida Gators are 4-2 (2-2) this season after they lost to South Carolina by a score of 38-19 last week. Florida trailed 17-10 at halftime and they were outscored 21-9 in the second half for the disappointing loss. The Gators were out gained by a total of 393-387, went 6-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-0 in the game. Aaron Philo threw for 227 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Bailey Stockton caught eight passes for 127 yards and one score. Jadan Baugh rushed 15 times for 59 yards and one touchdown in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Florida lost to Missouri by a score of 45-17, but did beat Ole Miss by a score of 52-28 before that. The Gators have scored 41.7 points per game with 273.5 passing yards and 200.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 29.0 points against per game this season. Aaron Philo has thrown for 1,341 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions this season. 

Why the Texas Longhorns will win

• Texas has won each of its last 22 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Florida has lost eight of its last nine October games against AP-ranked teams.
• Florida has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games in October.
• Texas has covered the spread in three of its last four home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Texas has won the first quarter in each of its last 14 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Texas has won the first half in each of its last 16 home games against non-AP-ranked teams.

Why the Florida Gators will win

• Texas has lost three of its last four October games as a top-10 AP-ranked team.
• Texas has failed to cover the spread in 14 of its last 15 October games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of Texas’ last four games.
• Florida has won the first quarter in three of its last four October games as an underdog.
• Florida has won the first half in three of its last four October games as an underdog.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Florida’s last six games against teams from Texas have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Texas’ last six October games at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Texas Longhorns Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Colin Simmons ranks 1st amongst FBS players for sacks (9.5) this season.

Florida Gators Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 7, Jadan Baugh ranks T1st amongst FBS players for touchdowns (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texas has overturned the largest 3rd quarter deficit to win a game this season – 20 points vs Ohio State.
• Three of Texas’ five games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
• Florida has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 40+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
• Florida ranks 131st among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (268.7).

Texas vs Florida Prediction 

Texas comes into this matchup after a bad loss to Oklahoma last week and three of their last four games have been decided by three points or less. The Longhorns need better QB play from Arch, as he has battled some turnover issues. Florida has lost two games in a row and they have allowed 83 points during that span. The Gators have been super inconsistent this year, but we know they don’t play any defense. Take the over in this contest.