Texas vs Michigan Prediction Football Picks Today 12/31/25

In this article we will formulate a Texas vs Michigan prediction for this College Football game on Wednesday, December 31st at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this matchup in bowl season.

Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

The Texas Longhorns are 9-3 (6-2) this season after they defeated Texas A&M by a score of 27-17 in their last game. Texas trailed 10-3 at halftime, but they scored 24 points in the second half and sealed the win with a late touchdown in the fourth. The Longhorns out gained A&M by a total of 397-337, went 4-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-0 in the game. Arch Manning went 14-29 for 179 yards and one touchdown, while Quintrevion Wisner rushed 19 times for 155 yards. Jack Endries led the receivers with four catches for 93 yards in the win. 

Prior to that game, Texas defeated Arkansas by a score of 52-37, but lost to Georgia by a score of 35-10 before that. The Longhorns have won six of their last seven games and they finished tied for fifth in the SEC standings. Texas has scored 29.6 points per game with 253.2 passing yards and 129.7 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 19.8 points against per game this season. Arch Manning has thrown for 2,942 yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while Ryan Wingo has 50 receptions for 770 yards and seven scores this season. 

Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview

The Michigan Wolverines are 9-3 (7-2) this year after they lost to Ohio State by a score of 27-9 in their last game. Michigan led 6-0 in the first quarter, but they trailed 17-9 at halftime and were shutout in the second half for the loss. The Wolverines were out gained by a total of 419-163, went 1-9 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. Bryce Underwood went 8-18 for 63 yards and one interception, while Jordan Marshall rushed seven times for 61 yards. Donaven McCulley led the receivers with three catches for 46 yards in the loss. 

Prior to that game, Michigan defeated Maryland by a score of 45-20 and Northwestern by a score of 24-22. The Wolverines have won five of their last six games and they finished tied for fourth in the Big Ten standings. Michigan has scored 27.6 points per game with 185.8 passing yards and 213.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 18.7 points against per game this season. Bryce Underwood has thrown for 2,229 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Andrew Marsh has 42 receptions for 641 yards and three scores this year. 

Why the Michigan Wolverines will win

• Michigan has won each of its last three games against top-15 AP-ranked teams at neutral venues.
• Texas has lost each of its last three games as a top-15 AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
• Texas has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.
• Michigan has covered the spread in each of its last four games at neutral venues.
• Michigan has won the first half in 10 of its last 12 games against non-conference opponents.
• Michigan has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Michigan’s last six games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of Texas’ last six games against AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texas has overturned the largest 3rd quarter deficit to win a game this season – 17 points vs Mississippi State.
• Texas ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.9).
• Michigan ranks 136th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (16.7).
• Michigan ranks T10th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (2.6).

Texas vs Michigan Prediction 

Michigan comes into this matchup with a 9-3 record on the season, but they lost to every good team they played and really had the benefit of a weak Big Ten schedule. The Wolverines struggled to get Underwood going in the passing game and their defense was very undisciplined. Texas was also 9-3, but did beat Oklahoma and Texas A&M. I do think the Longhorns are the better team, but they are missing a ton of players in this one and I think Michigan has all of the motivation. The Wolverines will be looking to make a good impression for their new coach and it sounds like most of their roster will be available, so I like Michigan with the points here. 

David Racey is 182-149 (55%) in College Football this season and is one of the top College Football Handicappers on the site. Click here for his premium plays for the week!