Toledo vs Bowling Green Prediction 10-26-24 College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Toledo vs Bowling Green prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 26th at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 9 matchup. 

Toledo Rockets Betting Preview

The Toledo Rockets are 5-2 (2-1) this year after they defeated NIU by a score of 13-6 in their last game. Toledo led 7-6 at the half and they were able to shut out NIU in the second half for the win. The Rockets were out gained by a total of 391-285, tied the turnover battle at zero, and went 2-15 on third down in the game. John Alan Richter threw for 152 yards and one touchdown, while Jerjuan Newton caught three passes for 64 yards and one score. 

Toledo also has wins over Duquesne, UMass, Mississippi State, and Miami (OH), but they have two losses against Western Kentucky and Buffalo. The Toledo offense has scored 30 points per game with 254.4 passing yards and 114.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 18.9 points per game this season. The Rockets have gone 37% on third down and 10-18 on fourth down through seven games. It sounds like Gleason is dealing with an injury, so Richter will probably be under center once again here. 

Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview

The Bowling Green Falcons are 3-4 (2-1) this season after they defeated Kent State by a score of 27-6 in their last game. Bowling Green led 20-6 at halftime and they scored the only points in the second half for the win. The Falcons outgained Kent State by a total of 434-204, won the turnover battle 3-0, and went 5-14 on third down in the game. Connor Bazelak threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns, while Terion Stewart rushed for 124 yards on 25 carries. 

Bowling Green also has wins over Fordham and Akron, but they have losses against Penn State, Texas A&M, Old Dominion, and NIU. The BG offense has scored 25.1 points per game with 236.6 passing yards and 136.7 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.4 points per game this season. The Falcons have gone 39.1% on third down and 7-12 on fourth down so far this season. Connor Bazelak has completed 69.6% of his passes for 1,644 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Terion Stewart has rushed for 458 yards and four scores. 

Why Toledo will beat Bowling Green

• Toledo has won each of its last nine games at Glass Bowl.
• Toledo has covered the spread in eight of its last nine October home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Bowling Green has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
• Toledo has won the first half in each of its last four games against conference opponents at Glass Bowl.
• Toledo has won the first quarter in four of its last five games against conference opponents at Glass Bowl.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Toledo’s last four games against non-AP-ranked teams at Glass Bowl have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of Bowling Green’s last four games against conference opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Toledo ranks 12th among FBS teams for H1 opponent points per game this season (7.4).
• Toledo ranks 123rd among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (72.7).
• Bowling Green ranks T10th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (161.7).
• Bowling Green ranks T122nd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (71.4).

Toledo vs Bowling Green Prediction 

Both of these teams came into this season with very high expectations in the MAC race, but both are sitting at 2-1, which makes this game very important. Bowling Green has had some struggles on offense in their last few games, as they only scored seven points in their loss to NIU and only scored seven points in the second half last week against Kent State. Toledo has also looked below average offensively in their last two games, so we may be in for a low-scoring game here. I think Toledo is the slightly better team and the home field will only help them. Take the Rockets to get the win.