Toledo vs Louisville Prediction Football Picks Today 12/23/25

In this article, we will formulate a Toledo vs Louisville Prediction for this College Football Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl Game on Tuesday, December 23rd. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Louisville Cardinals Preview

Louisville has an 8-4 record this season and finished 10th in the ACC. They are coming off a 41-0 home win against Kentucky. Offensively, Louisville averages 30.2 points per game, ranking 46th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 21.1 points per game, which is 36th. Louisville averages 388.8 total yards per game (226.3 passing and 162.6 rushing), while allowing 300.3 total yards per game (109.8 rushing and 190.6 passing).

Miller Moss leads Louisville with 2,526 passing yards with 64.0% completed passes and 14 touchdowns. Isaac Brown leads the team in rushing yards with 782, while Chris Bell has a team-high 72 receptions for 917 receiving yards. Defensively, TJ Quinn has a team-high 87 total tackles (39 of them solo), while Clev Lubin leads the team in sacks, with 7, and Antonio Watts and Tayon Holloway lead the team with 2 interceptions each.

Toledo Rockets Preview

Toledo has an 8-4 record this season and finished 4th in the MAC. They are coming off a 21-3 road win against Central Michigan. Offensively, Toledo averages 31.6 points per game, ranking 38th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 12.2 points per game, which is 4th. Toledo averages 421.8 total yards per game (244 passing and 177.8 rushing), while allowing 247.8 total yards per game (89.3 rushing and 158.4 passing).

Tucker Gleason leads Toledo with 2,515 passing yards with 64.7% completed passes and 21 touchdowns. Deamonte Trayanum leads the team in rushing yards with 950, while Junior Vandeross III has a team-high 75 receptions for 947 receiving yards. Defensively, K’Von Sherman has a team-high 85 total tackles (50 of them solo), while Martez Poynter leads the team in sacks, with 5.5, and Braden Awls has a team-high 5 interceptions.

Toledo Rockets @ Louisville Cardinals Betting Trends: Bowl

Why the Louisville Cardinals will win

• Louisville has won each of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
• Louisville has covered the spread in each of its last four games in Florida.
• Louisville has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
• Louisville has won the first half in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Toledo Rockets will win

• Toledo has won three of its last four games as an underdog.
• Louisville has lost three of its last four December games as a favorite.
• Toledo has covered the spread in each of its last seven games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Louisville has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as a favorite.
• Toledo has won the first half in eight of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Five of Louisville’s last six December games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of Toledo’s last five games at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.

Louisville Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Isaac Brown ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (8.6) this season.

Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Braden Awls ranks T6th amongst FBS players for interceptions (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Louisville ranks T9th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (36.0).
• Louisville ranks 10th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (200).
• Toledo has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 35+ points of any FBS team this season (4).
• Toledo ranks 1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (1.3).

Toledo vs Louisville Prediction

In this Toledo vs Louisville Prediction, Louisville is coming as -7-point favorites. Both teams have identical overall records this season, but they are coming into this matchup in opposite trajectories. Louisville is 1-3 in its last 4 games and 1-3 against the spread, while on the other hand, Toledo has four consecutive wins and has been excellent against the spread this season, with a 9-3 record. Toledo has been better both on the offensive and the defensive end, having the 4th-best defense in the nation and a +19.4 point differential this season, so i expect them to keep this one close. Take Toledo and get the +7 points in this one.