San Diego State Aztecs (1-2) vs. Toledo Rockets (2-1)
September 26, 2026 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Toledo Rockets -2.5 / San Diego State Aztecs 2.5; Over/Under: 51.5
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The San Diego State Aztecs and Toledo Rockets meet Saturday in week 4 college football action at the Glass Bowl. Here’s a Toledo vs. San Diego State Prediction. This article will include a Toledo vs. San Diego State Pick.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview
The San Diego State Aztecs lost to UCLA and James Madison, and they play Texas State next. San Diego State has lost 4 of its last 5 games. Jayden Denegal is completing 53.7 percent of his passes for 391 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Nathan Acevedo and Javion Kinnard have combined for 200 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bert Emanuel Jr. has 5 receptions.
The San Diego State Aztecs’ ground game is averaging 191 yards per contest, and Javion Kinnard leads the way with 308 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, San Diego State is allowing 24.7 points and 385.7 yards per game. Sione Hala leads the San Diego State Aztecs with 31 tackles, Djibril Rahman has 2 sacks, and Mike Lindsay has 2 interceptions.
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview
The Toledo Rockets beat Central Connecticut and Temple, and they play Ball State next. The Toledo Rockets have won 6 of their last 8 games. John Alan Richter is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 877 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Adjatay Dabbs and Rico Bond have combined for 392 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Bryson Hammer has 9 receptions.
The Toledo Rockets’ ground game is averaging 146.7 yards per contest, and Connor Walendzak leads the way with 172 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Toledo is allowing 29.3 points and 320.3 yards per game. Julian Fox leads the Toledo Rockets with 27 tackles, Caden Camese has 1 sack, and Isaac Zay has 1 interception.
Why the Toledo Rockets will win
- Toledo has won each of its last 12 home games in September.
- San Diego State has lost each of its last eight September games as a road underdog.
- San Diego State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Toledo has covered the spread in four of its last five games after coming off overtime.
- Toledo has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games at Glass Bowl.
- Toledo has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents at Glass Bowl.
Why the San Diego State Aztecs will win
- San Diego State has won three of its last four games against teams from Ohio.
- San Diego State has covered the spread in each of its last five games against opponents from the Mid-American Conference.
- Toledo has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games against teams from California.
- Toledo has lost the first half in four of its last five games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Toledo’s last six games against non-conference opponents at Glass Bowl have gone OVER the total points line.
- Eight of San Diego State’s last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
Toledo Rockets Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Daryl Barnett Jr. ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.
San Diego State Aztecs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Jaylon Hawkins ranks 5th amongst FBS players for kick return yards (200) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Toledo ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
- Toledo ranks 133rd among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (25:43).
- San Diego State ranks T136th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (11.7).
- San Diego State ranks 131st among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (137.0).
Toledo vs San Diego State Prediction
San Diego State is 0-3 ATS on the season and is coming off a bad home loss to James Madison. Toledo has done a fine job of beating up on the teams its suppsoed to beat and has covered 7 of its last 10 games overall. Toledo can be hit or miss defensively, but its high-powered offense should give San Diego State fits, especially with the Aztecs’ inability to stop the run. It feels like SDSU has taken a step back this year as the toughness in the trenches is gone. I’ll lay the small number with Toledo at home.
