Arkansas State Red Wolves (4-4) vs. Troy Trojans (6-2)
November 1, 2025 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Troy Trojans -6.5; Over/Under: 55.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Troy Trojans meet Saturday in college football action from Troy University Veterans Memorial Stadium. Here’s a Troy vs Arkansas State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Troy vs Arkansas State pick.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview
The Red Wolves kicked off their season with a sizable win at home over Southeast Missouri State. Arkansas State would then hit a losing streak however, falling to Arkansas, Iowa State, Kennesaw State and Louisiana-Monroe over the next four outings. The Red Wolves would finally break that trend in game six with a one-point win over Texas State, then kept it going with another one-point victory versus South Alabama on October 14. In that one the Red Wolves had a pretty rough time on third downs (4-of-17) and committed 11 of the game’s total 25 penalties for 91 yards on flags. The W was the important thing, however.
In last weekend’s game versus Georgia Southern, Arkansas State fell behind early and faced a four-point deficit at the half. The Red Wolves hit a 17-3 run in the second however, eventually powering out the comeback win 34-24. QB Jaylen Raynor finished 24-of-37 for 216 yards and an interception while also running in three touchdowns. Topping the rush were Kenyon Clay (17 carries; 174 yards; TD) and Devin Spencer (14 carries; 123 yards), while leading receiver Chauncy Cobb had a whopping 12 catches for 81 yards in the winning effort.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview
Over on the Troy side, they also opened the season with a big win at home, taking out Nicholls State 38-20 in their first appearance. The Trojans would fall versus Clemson and Memphis in the next two games though, before winning their next four in a row. Those victories came versus Buffalo, South Alabama, Texas State and Louisiana-Monroe in succession. The Trojans had a great defensive outing versus the Warhawks, giving up just 5-of-13 on third-down conversion attempts alongside a whopping four takeaways in a 37-14 victory on the road.
On Saturday versus Louisiana, the Trojans managed to score points in every quarter—but also gave up points in every quarter. Troy hit a 14-6 second-half run however, resulting in an eventual 35-23 win at home. QB Tucker Kilcrease was 16-of-24 for 180 yards and a pick, while Jordan Lovett carried 21 times for 113 yards and two scores. Kilcrease also added 11 totes for 25 yards and two TDs. Tops in receiving was Ethan Conner with three grabs for 68 yards.
Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Troy Trojans Betting Trends: Week 10
Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Donnie Smith leads the Sun Belt Conference for sacks (6.0) this season.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Chauncy Cobb has the most receptions without a receiving touchdown this season (52).
Matchup/League Facts
- Troy has overturned the largest 2nd quarter deficit to win a game this season – 14 points vs Texas State.
- Troy has overturned the largest 1st quarter deficit to win a game this season – 21 points vs Texas State.
- Arkansas State ranks 134th among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (11.6).
- Arkansas State ranks 134th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (-6.9).
Troy vs Arkansas State Prediction
I’ll lean toward taking a stab on Arkansas State, but you could call this one either way. The Red Wolves started slowly last weekend in their win over a middling Georgia Southern team, and eventually committed nine overall penalties with a couple of turnovers. That said, Arkansas State also racked up a nice 482 total yards (266 rushing), 29 first downs and 11-of-18 on third-down conversion attempts. The defense was strong on third downs themselves, giving up just 5-of-14 on the other side. That makes three straight wins for Arkansas State (two by one point), with 31 or more points scored in two of those.
As for Troy, they started a bit slowly themselves versus Louisiana on Saturday but everything worked out well for the home win. The Trojans notched a modest 180 passing yards and 21 first downs but also did great with third-down conversions (9-of-13). The defense gave up 7-of-15 on thirds themselves, however the three interceptions really helped the cause. Troy’s offense is cooking these days; they’ve hit 31 or more points in four straight games as the team has won five straight overall. This should be a good game if both teams play well.
