Troy vs Missouri Prediction Football Picks Today 9/19/26

In this article, we will formulate a Troy vs Missouri Prediction for this College Football Week 3 matchup on Saturday, September 19^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Missouri Tigers Preview

The Tigers have a 2-0 record this season and are coming off a 38-21 road defeat in Kansas. They will face Mississippi State and Florida next. Offensively, the Tigers average 46 ppg, ranking 25th in the country, while defensively, they allow 17.5 ppg, which is 58th. The Tigers average 515.5 total yards per game (324.5 passing and 191 rushing), while allowing 226.5 total yards per game (85 rushing and 141.5 passing).

Austin Simmons leads the Tigers with 544 passing yards with 75% completed passes and 7 touchdowns. Jamal Roberts leads the team in rushing yards with 172, while Donovan Olugbode has a team-high 13 receptions for 228 receiving yards. Defensively, Nicholas Rodriguez has a team-high 15 total tackles (8 of them solo), while Daeden Hopkins and Donta Simpson, Jr. lead the team with 1.5 sacks each.

Troy Trojans Preview

The Trojans have a 2-0 record this season and are coming off a 34-17 home victory against Alabama State. They will face Utah State and Southern Miss next. Offensively, the Trojans average 29 ppg, ranking 83rd in the country, while defensively, they allow 19 ppg, which is 65th. The Trojans average 384.5 total yards per game (183 passing and 201.5 rushing), while allowing 297 total yards per game (77 rushing and 220 passing).

Goose Crowder leads the Trojans with 366 passing yards with 51% completed passes and 4 touchdowns. Jaheim Merriweather leads the team in rushing yards with 149, while TK Keyes has a team-high 7 receptions for 167 receiving yards. Defensively, Keno Jones has a team-high 13 total tackles (7 of them solo), while Donnie Smith leads the team with 2 sacks.

Troy Trojans @ Missouri Tigers Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Missouri Tigers will win

• Missouri has won each of its last 26 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Troy has lost each of its last six road games against AP-ranked teams.
• Missouri has covered the spread in 13 of its last 16 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• Troy has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games against non-conference opponents.
• Missouri has won the first half in 23 of its last 24 games against non-conference opponents at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.
• Missouri has won the first quarter in 11 of its last 13 games against non-conference opponents at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• Troy has won each of its last three games in September.
• Missouri has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five games as an AP-ranked team at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.
• The underdog has covered the spread in four of Troy’s last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Troy’s last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of Missouri’s last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Missouri Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Shaun Terry II ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Troy Trojans Player Prop Facts

• Donnie Smith has recorded at least one sack in five consecutive games – longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 3.

Matchup/League Facts

• Missouri ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q1 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
• Missouri ranks T1st among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (100.0).
• One of Troy’s two games this season have been decided by a margin of three points or less – equal-most amongst FBS teams.
• Troy ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).

Troy vs Missouri Prediction

Both squads have been perfect this season but the Trojans have failed to cover in both of their victories. The Tigers have been better both on the offensive and the defensive end and have a dominating +28.5 point differential. They have won their only home game this season comfortably by 40 points, while the Trojans will be playing their first road game of the season. In their only previous head-to-head matchup six years ago, Missouri won easily Troy by 32 points, so I expect them to win big once again today at home. Take Missouri and lay the points.