UCLA vs LSU 9/4/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The UCLA Bruins meet the LSU Tigers in week 1 college football action from the Rose Bowl in college football action on Saturday night.

The LSU Tigers will be out to bounce back from a disappointing title defense in 2020, finishing 5-5 on the year but in all fairness, after losing Joe Burrow and co. from the 2019 national championship squad, there was a bit of regression expected. Myles Brennan was expected to be the starting QB for the Tigers this season after missing much of last year with an abdominal injury, but a serious arm injury in camp puts starting QB duties in the hands of Max Johnson after expected next man up TJ Finley transferred to Auburn. Johnson threw for just about 1,100 yards with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio. LSU’s rushing attack struggled in 2020, but Tyrion Davis-Price and John Emery will be expected to help the Tigers bounce back and expectations are they’ll do just that this coming year. The Tigers have a solid receiving group as well, but there will have to be some retooling as well as Terrace Marshall is gone from the program. That still leaves Kayshon Boutte who led the Tigers with 735 receiving yards while Jaray Jenkins had 17+ YPC last season. Kole Taylor will have to fill the massive hole left by Arik Gilbert who took his TE talents within the SEC to rival Georgia. On defense, Ali Gaye is back up front after leading LSU in tackles for a loss and Glen Logan is a nice building block in the middle while Andre Anthony has a ton of NFL potential on the edge. Mike Jones transfers in from Clemson to bolster LSU’s linebacking group while Damone Clark and Micah Baskerville are both back after finishing 2^nd and 4^th on the team in tackles. LSU might also have the best defender in college football in their secondary with Derek Stingley Jr. on the corner while Eli Ricks is at the other corner after logging 4 interceptions. The safeties will be a bit of work, but with the right care, things could definitely be promising in Baton Rouge. As a team, LSU averaged 32 PPG while allowing 34.9 PPG last season.

The UCLA Bruins started the year with a bang, picing up a 44-10 win in a rout over Hawaii in their first game. Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 130 yards and a touchdown on 10 of 20 passing while Zach Charbonnet led the Bruins with 106 yards and 3 touchdowns on 6 carries. Brittain Brown also had 78 rushing yards and a score on 13 carries while Kazmeir Allen led UCLA with 2 catches for 47 yards and the Bruins’ lone receiving score in the win. On defense, Mo Osling III led the Bruins with 5 solo tackles while Ale Kaho had a sack and UCLA as a unit registered 7 tackles for a loss. Datona Jackson and Jay Shaw each had an interception as well in the victory for Chip Kelly’s squad.

LSU is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games while the over is 8-4 in their last 12 games overall. UCLA is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games played on Saturday while the under is 4-2 in their last 6 home games.

I get the case that could be made for UCLA as the Bruins picked Hawaii apart and dominated the Warriors from start to finish. However, I didn’t like what I saw from Thompson-Robinson as he was ineffective from a passing standpoint and I think he’s going to have his hands full against the LSU defense. It’ll be interesting to see how LSU handles things offensively and at quarterback, but I think LSU’s defense gives them a real edge here so I’ll back the Tigers on the road in this one.