Air Force Falcons (4-2) vs. UNLV Rebels (4-2)
October 15, 2022 10:30 pm EDT
The Line: UNLV Rebels +9 / Air Force Falcons -9; Over/Under: +54.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The UNLV Rebels and Air Force Falcons clash Saturday in a week 7 MWC college football game from Allegiant Stadium.
The Air Force Falcons will look to bounce back from a 34-27 loss at the hands of Utah State last time out, falling to 4-2 on the year as a result. Haaziq Daniels has thrown for 469 yards, 5 touchdowns and an interception on 46.8% passing while also rushing for 278 yards and 3 scores. Brad Roberts leads Air Force with 709 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns while John Lee Eldridge III has 460 rushing yards as well this season. David Cormier also has a team-high 224 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Alec Mock has a team-high 40 total tackles while Camby Goff has a pair of interceptions and Air Force’s unit as a whole has 3 sacks this season.
The UNLV Rebels will look to bounce back from a 40-7 loss at the hands of San Jose State last time out to drop to 4-2 on the year. Doug Brumfield has thrown for 1,231 yards, 8 touchdowns and a pair of interceptions on 68.4% passing while Aidan Robbins leads the Rebels with 561 rushing yards and 8 scores this season. Ricky White has a team-high 29 catches for 386 yards and 3 touchdowns while Kyle Williams has 235 receiving yards with 4 scores and three other UNLV players have 100+ receiving yards as well. On defense, Austin Ajiake has a team-high 52 total tackles while UNLV’s defense as a whole has 16 sacks and 11 interceptions this season.
Air Force is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record. UNLV is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
I get why Air Force is favored here. However, Air Force has been laying points a lot this season and while it worked early, the Falcons are now having trouble covering the big numbers, dropping three of their last four ATS and now we’re seeing the Falcons favored by single digits for the first time this season as a result. UNLV has had their ups and downs as well and hit a new low last week with the beatdown loss to San Jose State, but this is a lot to give up when the home team has covered in 10 of the last 13 meetings between the two. I think this one has one score game written all over it, so give me the Rebels and the points here.
