UNLV Rebels (7-5) vs Boise State Broncos (9-3)
2023-12-02 15:00:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: UNLV Rebels +2.5 -- Over/Under: 58
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The Boise State Broncos and the UNLV Rebels meet Saturday in college football action from Allegiant Stadium for the Mountain West championship. Boise State is fresh off a big win over Air Force last Friday, which improved the Broncos to 7-5 overall. As for UNLV, they took a tough six-point loss to San Jose State in their last outing, dropping to 9-3 this year. Check out our Boise State vs UNLV Prediction.
Boise State Broncos
The Broncos are making their second consecutive appearance in the Mountain West championship game, and by the time they hit the field Boise State will have appeared in six of the last seven championship matchups. This one didn’t come easily, though; the championship slots were determined by computer after a wild weekend of games in the conference.
Boise State was able to cement their latest championship appearance with a victory versus Air Force on Friday. The Broncos took a 17-6 lead into the break and held on for the win 27-19. Taylen Green threw for 228 yards, one TD and two picks while also bagging a rush TD. Ashton Jeanty led the run game with 107 yards and another score, while also topping the receivers with 118 yards and a TD from five catches.
Boise State Broncos Team Facts
- The home team has won seven of Boise State’s last eight games.
- Boise State has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight December games as a favorite.
- Boise State has won the first half in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
- Seven of Boise State’s last eight December games as a favorite have gone UNDER the total points line.
Over on the Rebels’ side, they’re making their first appearance in the Mountain West title matchup and haven’t won a conference championship since 1994. UNLV’s hopes were nearly dashed after a tough loss versus San Jose State this past weekend (more on that in a moment), but the computer rankings still favored the Rebels this year.
In Saturday’s matchup versus the Spartans, UNLV was drilled 17-7 in the first quarter and trailed 30-17 going into the final frame. The Rebels made a run at it but still lost 37-31. Jayden Maiava threw for 229 yards and a TD, but Jai’Den Thomas did most of the offensive work with 10 carries for 48 yards and three scores. Ricky White led the receivers on his 111 yards from five grabs.
UNLV Rebels Team Facts
- UNLV has won three of its last four games as an underdog.
- UNLV has covered the spread in each of its last eight games as an underdog.
- Four of UNLV’s last five games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- UNLV rank 19th among FBS teams for points per game this season (35.5).
- UNLV has recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (2).
- Boise State rank 37th among FBS teams for points per game this season (32.0).
ANDREW’S FREE UNLV VS BOISE STATE PREDICTION
I’ll take a stab on Boise State. You could make a case either way, though. This matchup is already chock full of controversy, as San Jose State gets the proverbial short end of the stick after a great effort in their weekend win. The Spartans hung 482 yards (233 rushing) and 7.3 yards per play on UNLV, so there should be plenty of room for Boise State to move the ball if they can get the run game working early. The Broncos are averaging 32.0 points per game this year, and they’ve scored 29 of their 47 total touchdowns via the rush. Boise State averages 207.7 yards per game on the ground, so we can expect a heavy dose of smash-mouth football on Saturday.
As for UNLV, they’ve got to recover quickly after their difficult loss last weekend. The good news for the Rebels is that they’re averaging 35.5 points per game this year with a whopping 36 rush scores—they’re no slouches on the ground either. I like this one to be close most of the way, with the time-of-possession battle as a major factor. Should be a fun one to watch.