USC vs Fresno State Prediction Football Picks Today 9/4/26

In this article we will formulate a USC vs Fresno State prediction for this College Football game on Friday, September 4th at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 1 matchup. 

USC Trojans Betting Preview

The USC Trojans are 1-0 this year after they defeated San Jose State by a score of 42-26 in week zero. USC led 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters, but they allowed 23 points in the fourth quarter in the win. The Trojans out gained SJSU by a total of 505-336, went 9-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Jayden Maiava threw for 286 yards and two touchdowns, while Trent Mosley caught seven passes for 118 yards and one score. King Miller rushed 15 times for 63 yards and one touchdown in the win. 

Last year, USC went 9-4 (7-2) and they finished tied for fourth in the Big Ten standings. USC started the season with a 73-13 win over Missouri State, which was followed up with a 59-20 win over Georgia Southern. The Trojans started the season with four straight wins, but they lost to Illinois and Notre Dame in the span of three games. USC bounced back by winning four of their last five regular season games, before losing to TCU by a score of 30-27 in the Alamo Bowl. USC scored 35.8 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 23.0 points against per game on defense. 

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Fresno State Bulldogs went 9-4 (5-3) last season and they finished tied for fifth in the Mountain West standings. Fresno State started the season with a 31-7 loss to Kansas, but they followed that up with a 42-14 win over Georgia Southern. The Bulldogs were 5-1 through six games, but they lost three of the next five. Fresno State did finish the regular season with a win over San Jose State and they defeated Miami (OH) by a score of 18-3 in the Arizona Bowl. The Bulldogs scored 25.8 points per game in 2025, while they allowed 18.8 points against per game on defense. 

This season, Fresno State will start Jayden Mandal at quarterback, but the focus will be on the ground game. The Bulldogs have very good running backs, which should open up some big plays in the passing game. On defense, Fresno State should be very strong once again, but they do have some uncertainty in the secondary. 

Why the USC Trojans will win

• USC has won each of its last 17 home games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• Fresno State has lost 10 of its last 12 road openers.
• USC has covered the spread in each of its last six September home games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.
• Fresno State has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as an underdog in California.
• USC has won the first quarter in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
• USC has won the first half in nine of its last 10 games against non-conference opponents at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs will win

• Fresno State has won 11 of its last 12 games in September.
• USC has lost four of its last five games against opponents from the Pac-12 Conference.
• Fresno State has covered the spread in eight of its last nine games against AP-ranked teams.
• USC has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games against opponents from the Pac-12 Conference.
• Fresno State has won the first quarter in nine of its last 11 games in September.
• Fresno State has won the first half in each of its last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of USC’s last eight games against non-conference opponents at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of Fresno State’s last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• USC ranked 5th among FBS teams for passing yards per game last season (296.0).
• USC ranked 5th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage last season (51.3).
• Fresno State ranked 2nd among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game last season (153.8).
• Fresno State ranked 5th among FBS teams for interceptions last season (20).

USC vs Fresno State Prediction 

USC was able to get a win over San Jose State in week zero, but they played poorly in the fourth quarter and ended up allowing 26 points. The Trojans have a ton of talent, but they need the defense to step up. Fresno State should have a very good year in the PAC-12, but this is a tough matchup for them. USC will sell out against the run on defense, while they have the speed in the secondary to cover one on one. I think USC will win this game easily, as the style doesn’t really fit for Fresno State. Take USC here.