Missouri State Bears (0-0) vs. USC Trojans (0-0)
August 30, 2025 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: USC Trojans -35; Over/Under: 59.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Missouri State Bears and the USC Trojans meet Saturday in college football action from LA Memorial Coliseum. Here’s a USC vs Missouri State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best USC vs Missouri State pick.
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview
Going into last season, not too many people had high expectations for Missouri State. The Bears were ranked just two spots out of the basement in the MVFC preseason poll, but managed to surpass that prediction by quite a margin. Missouri State ended up going a solid 8-4 overall with a 6-2 run in Missouri Valley Football Conference games. That result put the Bears in fifth place behind North Dakota State, South Dakota State, South Dakota and Illinois State. Unfortunately, Missouri State was not eligible for either the NCAA Division I playoffs nor the MVFC title game due to their moving to a new home in Conference USA. Still, the Bears rattled off a nice eight-game win streak in the middle of the season, bookended by a pair of consecutive losses.
Looking ahead to 2025, Missouri State arrives in Conference USA for a whole new look. Granted, they’re still ineligible for postseason play due to transition rules, but that won’t stop the Bears from trying to post another strong season. Head coach Ryan Beard is back at the helm this season, and he’ll retain his coordinators for some consistency heading into the year. Missouri State does have a handful of outgoing transfers to deal with, including a trio of departed LBs in Tahj Chambers (Ole Miss), Michael Teason (TCU) and Dallas Winner-Johnson (Tulane).
USC Trojans Betting Preview
Over on the Trojans’ side, they dealt with a major change in conferences last year, moving from the Pac-12 (and previously the Pacific Coast Conference) to the Big Ten. Overall the season had its ups and downs, but USC managed to power out a winning record at 7-6 overall and 4-5 among some very tough Big Ten competition. The Trojans finished near the middle of the pack in the standings with that effort, behind Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota—the top five of those being ranked nationally. USC did have one three-game losing streak in October but rebounded well enough for a Las Vegas Bowl berth and a win over Texas A&M in that game on December 27.
Lincoln Riley comes back for his fourth year as head coach in 2025. Riley will have a couple of returning second-year defensive coordinators but also will start fresh with offensive coordinator Luke Huard on the other side. Their job this season will be to halt the backsliding in the record column, as USC went 8-5 in 2023 and 7-6 last year. The good news is that hopes are high heading into this 2025 campaign, and on paper the roster has a ton of talent.
Why the USC Trojans will win
- USC has won each of its last 11 home openers.
- USC has covered the spread in seven of its last eight games in California.
- USC has won the first half in 19 of its last 22 games against non-conference opponents at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
- USC has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
Total Points Facts
- Eight of USC’s last 10 games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
USC Trojans Player Prop Facts
- Jayden Maiava has thrown three or more touchdown passes in two consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS.
Matchup/League Facts
- USC have had suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team last season (4).
- USC have had suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of five points or less of any FBS team last season (3).
USC vs Missouri State Prediction
I was going to lean toward USC, but with that line I’m taking Missouri State. You could probably still call it either way, though. The Trojans are looking pretty good at the skill positions, with new faces Jayden Maiava as starting QB and RBs Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders slotting in behind him. There’s plenty of NFL experience on the coaching staff, and with some guidance the defensive unit should be pretty stout in 2025. USC gets LB Eric Gentry and safety Kamari Ramsey back on D, which should help immensely in some of the tough games on the schedule (Notre Dame, Oregon, Illinois, etc.). The Trojans have a lot of work to do, but if things break right we could be talking about them as a top-tier national team by season’s end.
The USC defense’s first minor test will be here as they attempt to stuff a relatively good-looking Bears offense. Ultimately I think they’ll pull it off, but Missouri State could give the Trojans a few headaches as well.
