USC vs San Jose State Prediction Football Picks Today 8/29/26

The San Jose State Spartans and USC Trojans meet Saturday in college football action at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Here’s a USC vs San Jose State Prediction. This article will include a USC vs San Jose State Pick.

San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview

San Jose State took a step back last season with just 3 wins and enters the third year under coach Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans have still turned their football program around recently, which includes making a bowl trip in 3 of the last 4 years.

San Jose State will be led by Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver, who threw for 628 yards and 6 touchdowns last season. The skill position players took a major blow, and there’s a lot of new faces. Malachi Riley returns from injury and will get an expanded role at receiver, while Penn State transfer Anthony Ivey and BYU transfer Dominique McKenzie will need to step up right away.

Defensively, Bojay Filimoeatu will take over in his first full season as defensive coordinator. Leading tacklers Jordan Pollard and Taniela Latu are gone, as well as sack artists Vili Taufatofua and Gafa Faga. Guys such as Solomone Langi and Jayland McGlothen will become the go-to players on this side of the ball, but like the offense, there is a lot of production to replace.

San Jose State has a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball, and it will likely lead to another missed bowl season. However, Niumatalolo is a good coach, and if the quarterback position works out, the Spartans could push for four or five wins, which is an upgrade from a year ago.

USC Trojans Betting Preview

USC won 9 games last season and enters the fifth year under coach Lincoln Riley. The Trojans enter this season with playoff hopes and a double-digit winning season for the first time since 2022.

Jayden Maiava is one of the top quarterbacks in the country and is fresh off 3,711 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. King Miller is fresh off a near 1,000 rushing season as a freshman, while Tanook Hines and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt lead a talented receiver room. USC also has its offensive line from last year, which adds to the chemistry. This USC offense should be one of the best in the country and put up big numbers in the Big Ten.

Defensively, USC enters the Gary Patterson era as he’ll coach for the first time since his TCU days. Desman Stephens II returns after leading USC with 89 tackles, and Kameryn Crawford and Braylan Shelby are a returning duo that combined for 10 sacks. USC has to be more physical on this side of the ball if it’s going to make a real push for a Big Ten title and appearance in the College Football Playoff.

USC has the talent on both sides of the ball to be one of the last teams standing. However, that’s been the case in past years, and this program has underachieved for the last decade. I’ll take a wait-and-see approach.

Why the USC Trojans will win

• USC has won each of its last 16 home games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
• San Jose State has lost each of its last 13 games against AP-ranked teams.
• San Jose State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
• USC has covered the spread in nine of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
• USC has won the first quarter in each of its last six games against opponents from the Mountain West Conference.
• USC has won the first half in eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

Why the San Jose State Spartans will win

• San Jose State has covered the spread in each of its last seven road games against non-conference opponents.
• USC has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games.
• USC has lost the first half in seven of its last eight games as an AP-ranked team.

Total Points Facts

• Ten of San Jose State’s last 11 road openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of USC’s last four games in August have gone OVER the total points line.

USC Trojans Player Prop Facts

• Jayden Maiava ranked 5th amongst FBS players for passing yards (3711) last season.

San Jose State Spartans Player Prop Facts

• Trent Carrizosa ranked 5th in the Mountain West Conference amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (45.6) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• USC ranked 5th among FBS teams for passing yards per game last season (296.0).
• USC ranked 5th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage last season (51.3).
• San Jose State ranked 135th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against last season (79.3).
• San Jose State ranked 134th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage last season (26.1).

USC vs San Jose State Prediction

A tough number for a season opener, and USC still has some showing and proving to do on the defensive side. However, San Jose State is breaking in a new football team across the board, while USC returns nearly an entire starting offense that’s expected to be one of the best in the country. I’m just not sure how San Jose State will get stops or find the horsepower to keep up.

There’s a gap in talent and experience. There also isn’t a look-ahead spot for the Trojans with Fresno State on deck. I just don’t see San Jose State putting up much of a fight. This feels like an old fashion butt kicking openeing week we usually see between a powerhouse and a team just happy to be here.