Memphis Tigers (7-2) vs. South Florida Bulls (6-3)
November 12, 2026 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: South Florida Bulls 3.5 / Memphis Tigers -3.5; Over/Under: 50.5
(Get latest betting odds)
USF vs Memphis Prediction
USF has had flashes this season, and when it plays to its potential, it’s capable of winning a game like this. The Bulls’ defense is one of the best in the country. USF is 24th in total defense and 11th in scoring defense. The problem is USF is nonexistent offensively, and it’s why it lost to a subpar East Carolina team and only scored 13 points against Temple earlier in the season. South Florida has scored 17 or fewer points in three of its last six games. It’s just not good enough against the best teams in the AAC.
While not as good defensively, Memphis is elite offensively, and it’s the difference in this game. Memphis is seventh in total offense and 15th in scoring offense. If Memphis continues to do what it’s done all season, USF simply doesn’t have the horses to counter. Memphis has won eight of the last nine games against USF. I’d love to get off the hook on a key number if possible, but Memphis has the scoring ability to blow South Florida off the field. South Florida just can’t keep up in this matchup. Give me Memphis by a touchdown or two.
Memphis Tigers Betting Preview
The Memphis Tigers beat East Carolina and Army, and they play Navy next. Memphis has won 5 of its last 6 games. Memphis is 2-2 SU on the road, 5-0 SU at home, and 5-4 ATS on the season. Marcus Stokes is completing 69.1 percent of his passes for 2,532 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Stokes has been sacked 15 times this season. Hunter Tipton has 495 yards and 5 touchdowns on 35 catches. Stonka Burnside has 453 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 catches. Jermane Hayes has 452 yards and 5 touchdowns on 37 catches.
The Memphis Tigers’ ground game is averaging 223.4 yards per contest, and Jaylin Carter leads the way with 929 yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, Memphis is allowing 23.6 points and 377 yards per game. Mike Montgomery leads Memphis with 67 tackles. Elijah Kinsler leads Memphis with 5.5 sacks. Dylan Smith leads Memphis with 3 interceptions.
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview
The South Florida Bulls beat UAB, lost to East Carolina, and they play FAU next. The South Florida Bulls have split their last 6 games. USF is 2-2 SU on the road, 4-1 SU at home, and 4-5 ATS on the season. Michael Van Buren Jr. is completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 1,273 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Van Buren has been sacked 13 times this season. Bryson Rodgers has 395 yards and 3 touchdowns on 38 catches. Joshua Porter has 274 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 catches. Cameron Sheldon has 218 yards and 1 touchdown on 17 catches.
The South Florida Bulls’ ground game is averaging 148.2 yards per contest, and D.J. Crowther leads the way with 689 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, South Florida is allowing 15.1 points and 312.7 yards per game. Ayden Jackson leads USF with 50 tackles. C.J. Hicks leads USF with 5 sacks. Tayvion Beasley leads USF with 1 interception.
Why the South Florida Bulls will win
- South Florida has won 11 of its last 12 games at Raymond James Stadium.
- The home team has covered the spread in each of South Florida’s last four games.
- Memphis has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six November games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The underdog has won the first quarter in each of South Florida’s last four games.
- South Florida has won the first half in 11 of its last 12 games at Raymond James Stadium.
Why the Memphis Tigers will win
- South Florida has lost 21 of its last 22 November games as an underdog.
- Memphis has won each of its last six games against teams from Florida.
- Memphis has covered the spread in each of its last four games against teams from Florida.
- South Florida has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games as a home underdog.
- Memphis has won the first quarter in each of its last six games as a favorite against teams from Florida.
- Memphis has won the first half in each of its last five games as a favorite against teams from Florida.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Memphis’ last five road games in November have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of South Florida’s last seven games in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.
South Florida Bulls Player Prop Facts
- Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown zero interceptions in nine consecutive games- the longest streak in the FBS, heading into Week 11.
Memphis Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 11, Marcus Stokes ranks T4th among FBS players for passing touchdowns (25) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- South Florida ranks T4th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+6.7).
- South Florida ranks 4th among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (96.4).
- Memphis ranks 4th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (20.4).
- Memphis ranks 5th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (514.0).
