Air Force Falcons (1-0) vs. Utah State Aggies (1-1)
September 13, 2025 9:45 pm EDT
The Line: Utah State Aggies +4.5 Over/Under: 51.5
(Get latest betting odds)
Air Force and Utah State meet Saturday in Week 3 college football action from Maverick Stadium. Here’s an Utah State vs Air Force prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Air Force Falcons vs Utah State Aggies pick.
Strong Start for Air Force
It has been a strong start to the season for Air Force, and they should have all the confidence right now. Two games ago against San Diego State, Air Force secured the 31-20 victory. In the last game against Bucknell, Air Force looked even more impressive, and they secured the 49-13 victory. Air Force finished the game with 426 yards, and 159 yards came through the air.
Josh Jackson completed 4 of his 7 passes for 112 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Liam Szarka also completed both of his passes for 47 yards. Cade Harris had a huge game on the ground, rushing eight times for 66 yards and two touchdowns. Dylan Carson also rushed 11 times for 52 yards and a touchdown. Harris also caught three passes for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Why Air Force Will Beat Utah State
- Air Force has won each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Utah State has lost each of its last four games in September.
- Air Force has covered the spread in each of its last five games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Utah State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Utah State Looks to Bounce Back
Utah State in the first game faced off against UTEP, and they were able to secure the 28-16 victory. In the last game against Texas A&M, Utah State scored 22 points, while the defense gave up 44 points, and that led to the defeat. Utah State had 250 total yards while Texas A&M put up 554 yards. They allowed 319 yards through the air, and that type of performance can’t happen again here.
Bryson Barnes had a strong game for Utah State, completing 15 of his 30 passes for 169 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Not having any turnovers was impressive, and they are going to need to have another big game from him. The top rusher was Myles Davis, and he finished with 10 rushes for 50 yards. The defense needs to be good, and they can’t fall behind early if they want to come out ahead.
Why Utah State Will Beat Air Force
- Utah State has won each of its last three games as a home underdog against teams from Colorado.
- Utah State has covered the spread in five of its last six home games.
Matchup/League Facts
- Utah State ranks 134th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (15.4).
- Utah State ranks T121st among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-6.5).
- Air Force ranks T1st among FBS teams for red zone percentage this season (100.0).
- Air Force has had a higher time of possession than its opponents in each of its last eight games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
Air Force vs Utah State Prediction
Even on the road, Air Force is going to find success here. Utah State’s defense was a major issue, and they are going to really struggle to defend here. Josh Jackson threw for a couple of touchdowns in the first game, and he’s going to really impress here. Air Force will score at least 30 points, and Utah State won’t get even close to that. They might reach 20 points, but not higher than that here. Air Force is going to cruise to a victory here. Back Air Force to win this game and cover the spread.
