Georgia State Panthers (1-2) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (3-0)
September 20, 2025 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Vanderbilt Commodores -25.5; Over/Under:
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The Georgia State Panthers and the Vanderbilt Commodores meet Saturday in college football action from FirstBank Stadium. Here’s a Vanderbilt vs Georgia State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Vanderbilt vs Georgia State pick.
Georgia State Panthers Betting Preview
Georgia State has three games in the bag so far, starting with a tough matchup against a very good Ole Miss team on August 30 in the opener. The Panthers gave up double-digit points in the final three quarters, limping to a 63-7 blowout loss. QB Christian Veilleux went just 4-of-11 for 52 yards, one TD and two picks while Rashad Amos led the rush on 68 yards. Javon Robinson had three catches for 52 yards and a score to top the receivers.
Game two against Memphis went a little better for the Panthers but it was still a sizable loss. Georgia State was within a point at halftime but didn’t score from there in a 38-16 defeat. TJ Finley was 21-of-29 for 201 yards and a pick. Cameran Brown led the rush with three totes for 25 yards and a touchdown. Ted Hurst topped the receivers this time with seven grabs for 97 yards in the defeat.
In last weekend’s matchup with Murray State, the Panthers jumped out to a 23-7 halftime lead and scored in every quarter, eventually securing a 37-21 win. Finley went 11-of-18 for just 150 yards with one TD and two picks, but Brown was 10-of-12 for 138 yards and three scores. Branson Robinson carried eight times for 65 yards, and Hurst led the receivers on 10 grabs for 172 yards and a pair of scores.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
Over on the Vanderbilt side, they demolished an overmatched Charleston Southern team in their debut, scoring 28 points in the first half alone during a 45-3 blowout win. QB Diego Pavia was 20-of-25 for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Sedrick Alexander topped the rushers on 83 yards from 12 totes, and Eli Stowers led the receivers with 86 yards on four catches. Junior Sherrill added three catches for 33 yards and a score as well, while Tre Richardson had 74 yards from five grabs.
In game two versus Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt posted another sizable win despite a 10-0 deficit in the first quarter. The Commodores scored three touchdowns in the final frame for a 44-20 victory in the end. Pavia was 12-of-18 for 193 yards, two scores and a pick this time, while Alexander scored two rush TDs. Makhilyn Young had 95 yards and a rush score of his own, and Richardson led the receivers on three catches, 54 yards and a touchdown.
Matched up against South Carolina last weekend, the Commodores came out of the first quarter with a 7-7 tie but held the Gamecocks blank from there in an epic win 31-7. Pavia connected on 18 of his 25 passes for 177 yards, two scores and an interception. Jamezell Lassiter’s 44-yard touchdown run put him atop the rushers, and Eli Stowers had three catches for 45 yards to lead the receivers.
Georgia State Panthers @ Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Trends: Week 4
Vanderbilt Commodores Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Sedrick Alexander ranks T7th amongst FBS players for touchdowns (5) this season.
Georgia State Panthers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 4, Marlin Dean leads the Sun Belt Conference for forced fumbles (1) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Vanderbilt ranks T1st among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (0.0).
- Vanderbilt ranks T1st among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (1.0).
- Georgia State ranks 136th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (24.3).
- Georgia State ranks 136th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-11.7).
Vanderbilt vs Georgia State Prediction
I’ll likely stick with Vanderbilt—so long as they can avoid the proverbial “big-win hangover,” that is. The Commodores were steady and strong in their win over South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to just 86 rush yards and 4-of-12 on third-down tries alongside four takeaways. The offense was well-balanced if not overwhelming, notching 323 yards (177 passing) and a 6-of-12 success rate on third downs. The Commodores have looked good on both sides of the ball, scoring 31 or more points in all three games while holding opponents to a combined 30 points in that trio. Considering Georgia State has fewer than 17 points in each of their two losses, the Commodores should be set up well here.
