Kentucky Wildcats (5-5) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (8-2)
November 22, 2025 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: Vanderbilt Commodores -9.5 / Kentucky Wildcats 9.5; Over/Under: 53.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Kentucky Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores meet Saturday in college football action at FirstBank Stadium. Here’s a Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction. This article will include a Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Pick.
Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview
The Kentucky Wildcats beat Florida and Tennessee Tech, and they play Louisville next. Kentucky has won 3 straight games. Cutter Boley is completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 1,780 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Kendrick Law and Hardley Gilmore IV have combined for 751 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Willie Rodriguez has 16 receptions.
The Kentucky Wildcats ground game is averaging 159.9 yards per contest, and Seth McGowan leads the way with 693 yards and 12 touchdowns. Defensively, Kentucky is allowing 23.1 points and 344.6 yards per game. Ty Bryant leads the Kentucky Wildcats with 56 tackles, Steven Soles Jr. has 3.5 sacks and Jordan Lovett has 2 interceptions.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
The Vanderbilt Commodores beat Auburn, lost to Texas, and they play Tennessee next. The Vanderbilt Commodores have won 3 of their last 4 games. Diego Pavia is completing 70 percent of his passes for 2,440 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Eli Stowers and Junior Sherrill have combined for 1,139 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, while Tre Richardson has 28 receptions.
The Vanderbilt Commodores ground game is averaging 185.2 yards per contest, and Diego Pavia leads the way with 613 yards and 7 touchdowns. Defensively, Vanderbilt is allowing 22.2 points and 357.2 yards per game. Bryan Longwell leads the Vanderbilt Commodores with 58 tackles, Miles Capers has 4.5 sacks and Martel Hight has 1 interception.
Why the Vanderbilt Commodores will win
- Vanderbilt has won each of its last 12 games as a home favorite.
- Kentucky has lost each of its last six games against AP-ranked teams.
- The favorite has covered the spread in seven of Vanderbilt’s last eight games at FirstBank Stadium.
- Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 12 games against teams from Tennessee.
- Kentucky has lost the first half in six of its last eight games against conference opponents.
Why the Kentucky Wildcats will win
- Kentucky has won each of its last four road games against Vanderbilt.
- Vanderbilt has lost 42 of its last 51 games against conference opponents.
- The road team has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
- Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games in November.
- Vanderbilt has lost the first half in 20 of its last 25 home games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Vanderbilt’s last eight November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of Kentucky’s last six games against teams from Tennessee have gone OVER the total points line.
Vanderbilt Commodores Player Prop Facts
- Diego Pavia has recorded a 120.0+ passer rating in two consecutive games – equal-longest streak in the FBS.
Kentucky Wildcats Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 13, Ty Bryant ranks T1st in the Southeastern Conference for interceptions (3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Vanderbilt ranks 4th among FBS teams for H2 points per game this season (19.7).
- Vanderbilt ranks 5th among FBS teams for 3rd down conversion percentage this season (53.3).
- Kentucky ranks T18th among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (8.5).
- Kentucky ranks T19th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (4.1).
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction
Vanderbilt has been the more consistent team this season, is 7-2-1 ATS and has the offense to give Kentucky the business. However, Kentucky has turned its season around over the last three weeks and finds itself one win away from a bowl berth. Kentucky has covered 4 of its last 5 games and has outright won its last 2 games as an underdog. There’s a lot of hype around Vanderbilt, but this is a program that’s also 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when a favorite of 7 or more points. Kentucky looked dead in the water after a 2-5 record, but this should be a motivated group. I’ll grab the points.
