Virginia vs Missouri Prediction Football Picks Today 12/27/25

In this article, we will formulate a Virginia vs Missouri Prediction for this College Football Bowl Game on Saturday, December 27^th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Missouri Tigers Preview

Missouri has an 8-4 record this season and finished 4-4 in the SEC. They are coming off a 31-17 road win against Arkansas. Offensively, Missouri averages 32.2 points per game, ranking 30th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 19.4 points per game, which is 27th. Missouri averages 429.3 total yards per game (195.3 passing and 234.1 rushing), while allowing 274.8 total yards per game (103.3 rushing and 171.4 passing).

Beau Pribula leads Missouri with 1,941 passing yards with 67.4% completed passes and 11 touchdowns. Ahmad Hardy leads the team in rushing yards with 1,560, while Kevin Coleman Jr. has a team-high 63 receptions for 715 receiving yards. Defensively, Josiah Trotter has a team-high 84 total tackles (43 of them solo), while Toriano Pride Jr. has a team-high 2 interceptions.

Virginia Cavaliers Preview

Virginia has a 10-3 record this season and finished 7-1 in the ACC. They are coming off a 20-27 neutral site loss against Duke. Offensively, Virginia averages 32.2 points per game, ranking 31st in the nation, while defensively, they allow 20.5 points per game, which is 34th. Virginia averages 426.3 total yards per game (242.3 passing and 184 rushing), while allowing 313.3 total yards per game (110.5 rushing and 202.8 passing).

Chandler Morris leads Virginia with 2,802 passing yards with 64.6% completed passes and 16 touchdowns. J’Mari Taylor leads the team in rushing yards with 1,062, while Trell Harris has a team-high 59 receptions for 847 receiving yards. Defensively, Devin Neal has a team-high 77 total tackles (34 of them solo), while Daniel Rickert leads the team in sacks, with 6.5, and Ja’son Prevard has a team-high 3 interceptions.

Virginia Cavaliers @ Missouri Tigers Betting Trends: Bowl

Why the Missouri Tigers will win

• Missouri has won each of its last 14 games against non-conference opponents.
• Virginia has lost eight of its last nine games in Florida.
• The favorite has covered the spread in each of Missouri’s last six games.
• Virginia has failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games at neutral venues.
• Missouri has won the first quarter in three of its last four games against non-conference opponents.
• Missouri has won the first half in 26 of its last 33 games against non-conference opponents.

Why the Virginia Cavaliers will win

• Missouri has lost each of its last seven games against AP-ranked teams.
• Virginia has won each of its last three games as an underdog.
• The team ranked 25th in the AP Poll has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last nine games.
• Virginia has covered the spread in each of its last four games in Florida.
• Virginia has won the first half in six of its last eight games against non-conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of Virginia’s last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Missouri’s last four games in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.

Missouri Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Ahmad Hardy has recorded 50+ rushing yards in 21 consecutive games (including postseason) – longest streak in the FBS, heading into the bowl games.

Virginia Cavaliers Player Prop Facts

• Heading into the bowl games, Daniel Sparks ranks 5th amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (47.5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Missouri ranks 4th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+5.8).
• Missouri ranks 7th among FBS teams for 1st downs against this season (187).
• Virginia has played in the highest number of games that went to overtime this season (4).
• Virginia ranks 11th among FBS teams for average point differential in first quarters this season (+5.5).

Virginia vs Missouri Prediction

In this Virginia vs Missouri Prediction, Missouri is coming as -4-point favorites. Virginia had a slightly better overall record than Missouri and have been almost perfect on the road, while Missouri is mediocre on the road, as this game is taking place in a neutral site. Virginia has also been better against the spread this season and are coming into this matchup in better form, with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games, while on the other hand, Missouri is 2-3 in its last 5. I like Virginia as underdogs in this spot, so take the +4 points in this one.