North Carolina Tar Heels (3-4) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (4-3)
October 26, 2024 12:00 pm EDT
The Line: Virginia Cavaliers -4 / North Carolina Tar Heels +4; Over/Under: +59.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate a Virginia vs North Carolina prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 26th at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 9 matchup.
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview
The Virginia Cavaliers are 4-3 (2-2) this year after they lost to Clemson by a score of 48-31 in their last game. Virginia led 10-3 in the second quarter, but they allowed the next 35 points for the loss. The Cavaliers were out gained by a total of 539-346, tied the turnover battle at one, and went 5-13 on third down in the game. Anthony Colandrea threw for 159 yards and two touchdowns, while Malachi Fields caught three passes for 65 yards and one score.
Virginia also has losses against Maryland and Louisville, but they do have wins over Richmond, Wake Forest, Coastal Carolina, and Boston College. The UVA offense has scored 28 points per game with 262.7 passing yards and 159.6 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 25.7 points per game this season. The Cavaliers have gone 35.9% on third down and 8-15 on fourth down through seven games. Anthony Colandrea has completed 63.6% of his passes for 1,649 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Malachi Fields has caught 40 passes for 606 yards and four scores.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The North Carolina Tar Heels are 3-4 (0-3) this season after they lost to Georgia Tech by a score of 41-34 in their last game. North Carolina trailed 20-14 at halftime, but they did tie the game at 34 with 44 seconds left, before allowing a 68-yard touchdown run for the loss. The Tar Heels were outgained by a total of 505-417, lost the turnover battle 2-0, and went 4-14 on third down in the game. Jacolby Criswell threw for 209 yards and one touchdown, while Omarion Hampton rushed for 137 yards in the loss.
North Carolina has also lost to Pittsburgh, Duke, and James Madison during this four-game losing streak, but they did open the season with wins against Minnesota, Charlotte, and NC Central. The UNC offense has scored 32.9 points per game with 245.7 passing yards and 198.7 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 30.4 points per game this season. The Tar Heels have gone 37.9% on third down and 6-14 on fourth down so far this season. Jacolby Criswell has completed 56.2% of his passes for 1,367 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Omarion Hampton has rushed for 901 yards and seven scores.
Why Virginia will cover
- North Carolina has lost seven of its last eight games against conference opponents.
- Virginia has won each of its last four October games against North Carolina.
- Virginia has covered the spread in each of its last eight games in October.
- North Carolina has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of North Carolina’s last eight games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of Virginia’s last four home games against non-AP-ranked teams has gone UNDER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- Virginia ranks T127th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-5.4).
- Virginia ranks T124th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (8.7).
- North Carolina ranks T122nd among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (71.4).
- North Carolina ranks T14th among FBS teams for 1st downs this season (165).
Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction
North Carolina comes into this matchup looking for their first conference win of the season, but they need to play much better defense here. The Tar Heels have allowed 41, 34, 21, and 70 points in their last four games and they play a Virginia team that can move the ball. The Cavaliers do have three losses on the year, but two of them came against Clemson and Louisville. I think we are going to see plenty of points scored in this game, but I can’t back this North Carolina defense right now. Take Virginia at home.
