Week 0: New Mexico State vs Nevada 8/27/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The New Mexico State Aggies and Nevada Wolf Pack clash Saturday in week 0 college football action from Aggie Memorial Stadium.

The Nevada Wolf Pack will basically be starting from scratch in 2022 after finishing 2021 at 8-5 including a 5-3 mark in Mountain West play and earning a spot in the Quick Lane Bowl, a game that the Wolf Pack lost to Western Michigan in a 52-24 rout. Jay Norvell left the Wolf Pack to go in conference to Colorado State, so Ken Wilson moves up to head coach for the Wolf Pack. It’s Wilson’s first head gig, but he has had time in the Pac-12 coaching at Washington State and Oregon. The Wolf Pack lost their star WR/QB combo of Carson Strong and Romeo Doubs which helped propel the Wolf Pack to a near top-5 passing offense, but the Wolf Pack will have a hard time even trying to get to that mark this season. Shane Illingworth transfers in from Oklahoma State to battle returning backup Nate Cox for the starting pivot job in Reno. Doubs, tight end Cole Turner and three other wideouts left Nevada, taking 2,300 yards of production with them, but the Wolf Pack brought in former Arizona Wildcat BJ Casteel and former Oregon Duck Cooper Shults to fortify the receiving group. Toa Taua returns in Nevada’s backfield for a 5^th season and alongside Devonte Lee form one fo the more experienced RB pairings in the Mountain West, but it’s going to be behind a patchwork offensive line that’s going to need time to come together. Defensively, it’s a lot more of the same as a lot of the parts from Nevada’s solid defense are gone. The good news is that one of their better players is returning in defensive lineman Dom Peterson and if anyone can coach up the incoming linebackers, it’s coach Wilson. The best part of this Nevada team might be their secondary, bringing in a big transfer from Michigan in Darion Warren-Green alongside guys like Tyson Williams, JoJuan Claiborne and Bentlee Sanders, making the Wolf Pack a solid aerial defense this season.

The New Mexico State Aggies will begin a new era of optimism in Las Cruces after finishing with a disappointing 2-10 record last season, leading to the dismissal of Doug Martin, who spent nine years at the helm of the Aggies coaching staff. The Aggies now bring in Jerry Kill, who’s had a fantastic coaching resume and would’ve had a lot of the same success at Minnesota had medical issues not intervened. Kill may be the ray of light for the Aggies who have had more than three wins just once since 2011 and has had one winning season in the last 20 years. The Aggies will have to make up for losing top QB Jonah Johnson to the transfer portal, but have returning pieces like Weston Eget and Dino Maldonado, but improvement from those two will be key for any success from the Aggies offensively this season. Juwaun Price is also gone from the Aggie backfield, but there are still guys there, like former Michigan Wolverine O’Maury Samuels and Ahmonte Watkins, transferring in after last playing at TCU. New Mexico State’s depth at wideout will be challenged after losing two of their top receivers in Terrell Warners to the transfer portal and Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda leaving for Nebraska. But the strength for the Aggies may be the defense here, which sounds weird from a team that allowed 40 points per game last season. That being said, New Mexico State hit the transfer portal hard. Chris Ojoh is back after leading the Aggies with six sacks last season and Trevor Brohard is back in the linebacking group as well, while Donavan King is one of the Aggies’ best at creating pressure. DJ McCullough and Syrus Dumas make up a formidable pair in the Aggie secondary but this is where the transfer portal comes in big as the Aggies get Mekhi Miller from Maryland and Andrew Seldon from Michigan to aide in a secondary that allowed almost 300 passing yards per game last season.

Nevada is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games while the over is 9-3 in their last 12 games overall. New Mexico State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against the Mountain West conference and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in August while the over is 5-2 in their last 7 games overall. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings at New Mexico State.

I get the reasoning for liking Nevada here as they’re the more name-brand team here and New Mexico State doesn’t have a ton going from them if you’re just looking at last year’s numbers. However, the Wolf Pack have one of the worst returning production percentages from last year coming into this season and the Wolf Pack just lost a ton of talent that even with an offseason to prepare, still is going to take some time to get used to. There’s also the wrinkle that Illingworth stayed at Oklahoma State in the spring to complete his classes instead of working out in spring practice with the Wolf Pack. This Aggies team is going to look like a shiny new toy under Jerry Kill and while there’s turnover in Las Cruces as well, I’m excited for what the Aggies are going to put out this season and I think the optimism will be sky high and give the Aggies some good vibes in their season opener at home. The outright upset is not off of the table, but I’m going to take the points with the Aggies here.