Week 1: Air Force vs Northern Iowa 9/3/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Air Force Falcons and Northern Iowa Panthers clash Saturday in week 1 college football action from Falcon Stadium.

The Northern Iowa Panthers will be looking to rebound from a down year by the program’s normal standards, finishing at 6-6 overall including 4-4 in Missouri Valley Conference play. Theo Day is back at QB after throwing for 2,316 yards and 16 touchdowns with a 56.2% completion percentage while Dom Williams is back as well for his final tour after leading Northern Iowa with 723 rushing yards in UNI’s backfield last season. The trouble for UNI will be replacing a pair of their top receivers in Trevor Penning and Isaiah Weston, with the latter making the all-MVC team at wide receiver. The good news for the Panthers is that Quan Hampton and Deion McShane are back after combining for 838 yards and 74 catches last season. On defense, Spencer Cuvelier and Benny Sapp III are back to lead the Panther defense, with born garnering all-MVC honors. Caden Houghtelling will be looking to build on a strong 2021 where he had 51 tackles and 10 TFLs with 5.5 sacks and Devin Rice and Bryce Flater make up a formidable group up front for Northern Iowa coming into 2022.

The Air Force Falcons will be hoping to build on a fairly successful season in Colorado Springs after a 10-3 mark in 2021, including a 6-2 mark in Mountain West conference play and a share of the Mountain division regular season championship. The Falcons received an invite to the First Responder Bowl, a game in which the Falcons took down Louisville by a final score of 31-28. Haaziq Daniels is back at QB for Air Force, but that doesn’t mean much for his passing numbers, it’s more about his ability to run the option offense that Air Force is now known for. Daniels ran for 11 touchdowns as well as 736 rushing yards while Brad Roberts is also back after leading the Falcons with 1,357 yards and 13 touchdowns. On defense, the Falcons lose a lot of their top guys from that side of the ball, including their top tackler in Tre Bugg, as well as Jordan Jackson on the D-Line, but the linebacking group will be the strength of this unit as well as Trey Taylor in the secondary and all-MWC pass rushed Vince Sanford up front.

Northern Iowa is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall while the under is 10-4 in their last 14 non-conference games. Air Force is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 24-9 ATS in their last 33 non-conference games while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

I get why the points with the Panthers could be worth a look here as the Panthers are a solid FCS squad making the trip into this one. However, while Air Force lost some solid defensive pieces, the reality is that they’re still a team that runs the option very well, controls the clock exceptionally well, and just won’t give Northern Iowa the chances to do the damage on the board that they’d need to do to keep in this game and within this line. I think the Falcons cover, but not by much more than this. Give me Air Force.