Week 1: Iowa vs South Dakota State 9/3/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Iowa Hawkeyes and South Dakota State Jackrabbits square off Saturday in week 1 college football action from Kinnick Stadium.

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits come into the 2022 season looking to add on their success from the 2021 campaign where the Jackrabbits went 8-3 in the regular season, earning a spot in the FCS playoffs. The Jackrabbits took down UC-Davis, Sacramento State and Villanova before falling to runner-up Montana State in the FCS semi-finals. The bad news for South Dakota State is that they have to replace two of their best players in Chris Oladokun, a quarterback that got drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as Pierre Strong Jr., running back for the New England Patriots. The good news is that they get back Mark Gronowski from injury at QB, who missed the entire 2021 season. In 2020-21, Gronowski threw for 1,565 yards, 15 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions while also rushing for 577 yards and 7 scores. The receiving corps is in good shape for Gronowski with Jaxon and Jadon Janke back as his top receiving partners, with Jaxon logging a team-high 72 grabs for 1,176 yards and 5 TDs while Jadon had a team-high 9 receiving scores as well as 41 catches for 655 yards last year. The running backs will appear to be Isaiah Davis and Amar Johnson who both took touches in relief of Strong last season. On defense, Caleb Sanders and Reece Winkelman lead the Jackrabbits’ front line while Adam Bock is back to anchor the Jackrabbits’ defense at linebacker after logging 125 tackles last season alongside Isaiah Stalbird and Graham Spalding. Dalys Beanum, DyShawn Glales and Malik Lofton headline the group of corners while Cale Reeder is back after logging 65 tackles at safety last season.

The Iowa Hawkeyes will be out to build on a fairly successful 2021 season, that saw the Hawkeyes finish the year at 10-4, including a 7-2 mark in Big Ten conference play and ended with a thud with a 42-3 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. The Hawkeyes were invited to the Citrus Bowl, a game they lost to Kentucky by a final count of 20-17, losing a bowl game for the first time since 2016. QB is a murky situation for the Hawkeyes, with Spencer Petras back in the fold and Alex Padilla is an option as well but he has to hit more than half of his passes, which isn’t something we could say last season. The Hawkeyes will need to replace Tyler Goodson at running back after his 1,100+ yard season last year, but Gavin Williams has experience after rushing for 305 yards last season and is in a good spot to keep the chain moving. The receiving corps can be a mess too, as their top pass-catcher is back in Sam LaPorta, but their top pass-catcher is also their top tight end. The Hawkeyes do return Jeegan Johnson who is a big play threat and Nico Ragaini who has a lot of experience for the Hawkeyes, but their top return man and one of their best receivers in Charlie Jones hit the transfer portal. The good news after all of this is that the defense is in a position to be really good again, after leading the nation in interceptions last year with 25 and the Hawkeyes have one of the best secondary playmakers in the country in Riley Moss, who missed a good chunk of last season because of injury. Lukas Van Ness and Joe Evans teamed up for 14 sacks while Jack Campbell is back at linebacker after posting 143 tackles last season and Seth Benson added 105 tackles last year at another linebacker spot.

South Dakota State is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall while the over is 8-1 in their last 9 non-conference games. Iowa is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games.

I get why Iowa’s favored here, but I don’t necessarily love the talent that the Iowa offense is carrying over, especially at QB as I’ve never been a Spencer Petras fan. South Dakota State is not an ideal first opponent for Iowa as this is an FCS powerhouse year after year and the Jackrabbits continue to reload despite losing two of their best guys to the NFL. I just don’t feel like laying this kind of number with Iowa, so give me the Jackrabbits and the points in a game that I think South Dakota State keeps a lot closer than a lot of folks would think.