Week 1: Kentucky vs Miami-OH 9/3/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Kentucky Wildcats and Miami-Ohio RedHawks clash Saturday night in week 1 college football action from Kroger Field.

The Miami-Ohio RedHawks will be hoping to build on a solid 2021 season, finishing the year at 7-6 overall, including a 5-3 mark in MAC conference play and earning themselves a spot in the Frisco Football Classic, a game that the RedHawks took down North Texas in by a final score of 27-14. Brett Gabbert is back after throwing for over 3,600 yards and 32 touchdowns with just 8 INTs last season while the group of young running backs from last season, Kevin Davis, Keyon Mozee, Tyre Shelton and Kenny Tracy are all back after combining for over 1,400 yards and 12 scores while Mac Hippenhammer and Jack Coldiron return as two key pieces of Miami’s receiving group. The defense for Miami-Ohio loses a ton of their top talent from last year, but Austin Ertl and Anthony Collier return to lead the front line for Miami-Ohio and Corey Suttle transfers in from Iowa State to help while Matthew Salopek is back after finishing second for Miami-Ohio in tackling last season and Ty Wise transfers in from Indiana to assist as well. John Saunders led the RedHawks secondary in interceptions last season while Nolan Johnson transfers in from ECU and Michael Dowell comes from Michigan State to take over at safety.

The Kentucky Wildcats will hope to build on a really good season in Lexington after finishing 10-3 overall including a 5-3 mark in SEC conference play. The Wildcats received an invite to the Citrus Bowl, a game in which the Wildcats took out Iowa by a final score of 20-17. Will Levis will be the man under center for Kentucky after throwing for over 2,800 yards and 24 scores last season while Chris Rodriguez rushed for almost 1,400 yards and 9 scores last season. Kavosley Smoke is also an option for the Wildcats in the backfield. Kentucky will have to replace their top two receivers with WanDale Smith and Josh Ali gone, but DeMarcus Harris has experience while Tayvion Robinson and Javon Baker will try to make an impact after transferring in from Virginia and Alabama respectively. On defense, the Wildcats bring back a lot of solid pieces as well, like jack linebacker JJ Weaver as well as Jacquez Jones who led Kentucky with 85 tackles last season. DeAndre Square is also another strong option for Kentucky’s linebacking group. Justin Rogers and Octavious Oxendine give the Wildcats a pair of massive bodies on the d-line and Carrington Valentine and Tyrell Ajian are the main cogs in Kentucky’s secondary.

Miami-Ohio is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-13 ATS int heir last 18 non-conference games while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 games against the SEC. Kentucky is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the MAC while the over is 24-8 in their last 32 non-conference games.

I get the case to be made for the Wildcats at home here as they’re the better team on paper with some strong weapons. However, while Levis is a solid arm, it appears that right now, the offensive identity of Kentucky is likely going to be a run first team which will lead to longer drives and more time being chewed off of the clock, which isn’t something you want when you’re trying to cover big numbers and I just don’t see the Wildcats as a home run, short-drive quick score kind of team. I think that Miami-Ohio has some solid backs, a proven QB in their own right and we saw a couple of times last season, Kentucky struggle to put away inferior opposition like Chattanooga. I’ll take my chances with Miami-Ohio and the points here.