Week 1: Ole Miss vs Troy 9/3/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Ole Miss Rebels and Troy Trojans clash Saturday in week 1 college football action from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

The Troy Trojans will try to start the Joe Sumrall era on a high note after finishing 2021 at 5-7 overall including a 3-5 mark in Sun Belt conference play. Gunnar Watson is expected to be the front-runner for the starting QB job for the Trojans with Taylor Powell heading to EMU, but he has to show progression after throwing for just 1,614 yards, 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions last season. Kimani Vidal is back at RB after rushing for 696 yards and 5 scores and Jamontez Woods also returns as the heavy back for goal-line spots after logging 6 scores last season. Tez Johnson returns for Troy’s receiving group with 67 catches for 735 yards and 4 TDs last season while Jabre Barber and Deshon Stoudemire give the Trojans options at wideout. On defense, Javon Solomon is back after recording 11 sacks and 17 TFLs last season while Bandit Richard Jibunor had 8 sacks and 10 TFLs. Will Choloh is also back after finishing as an all-second team Sun Belt pass rusher while Carlton Martial returns as one of the Sun Belt’s premier linebackers following his team-high 127 tackle output last season. TJ Harris was also all-Sun Belt in Troy’s secondary and the Trojans have a wealth of cornerbacks at their disposal.

The Ole Miss Rebels will try to build on a strong season in 2021 after going 10-3 overall including a 6-2 mark in SEC conference play and a 21-7 loss to Baylor in the Sugar Bowl. The Rebels lost Matt Corral to the Carolina Panthers, but get an equally talented passer to fill the void in Jaxson Dart, formerly of USC fame, but Luke Altmyer and Kinkead Dent will be ready to take over in case of emergency. The rest of the offense is undergoing a bit of a rebuild, but there is still talent coming back to Oxford, as the running backs go from the grouping of Conner, Ealy and Parrish to Zach Evans from TCU and Ulysses Bentley IV from SMU who combined for over 3,000 yards of offense and 27 TDs up to this point in their college careers. Like the RBs, the wide receivers will take some new shape as well. Jonathan Mingo is back after an injury-plagued 2021, and Dennis Jackson is back as well as a big play threat while Jordan Watkins comes in from Louisville and Malik Heath stays within the SEC after coming from Mississippi State. Haylon Robinson also joins from UCF and Michael Trigg, a tight end, joins Dart as another Trojan making the jump to Ole Miss. On defense, Otis Reese returns as the leading tackler after recording 91 tackles and AJ Finley had 90 tackles with three interceptions for Ole Miss last season.

Troy is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the SEC and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall while the under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 non-conference games. Ole Miss is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September while the under is 8-0 in their last 8 games overall.

I get that this is a lot of points to be giving up to an overhauling Ole Miss team that’s starting over from a cohesion and continuity standpoint. However, like I said for Ole Miss before, the talent that they are bringing in is solid talent and guys with lots of starting experience. Troy’s got more continuity, but this is just going to be a spot where it’s SEC over Sun Belt and we see the discrepancy on the field here. It’s not always the case, but I think Ole Miss flexes their muscle here and gets a big win, covering the spread in the process.