Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston State Prediction Football Picks Today 8/23/25

The Sam Houston State Bearkats and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers meet Saturday in college football action from Houchens Industries-LT Smith Stadium. Here’s a Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston State prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston State pick.

Sam Houston State Bearkats Betting Preview

The Bearkats didn’t quite reach the ultimate heights of their conference last year—even though they probably should have. That said, Sam Houston had a pretty successful season overall and could boast a double-digit win total (something no other team in the Conference USA standings could say for themselves). The Bearkats became bowl eligible on October 22, just their second year of FBS play. That hurdle was cleared thanks to a tense 10-7 road win over FIU, and Sam Houston wasn’t done after that.

The Bearkats would end up winning five of their last six games, including a 31-26 win (another tight one) over Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl. Sam Houston’s only losses came versus UCF, Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State, giving the team a 10-3 record overall and a 6-2 run in Conference USA play. Due to the head-to-head defeats, however, the Bearkats could only muster a third-place finish in the conference.

This year marks a major change for Sam Houston. They’ll be under the instruction of first-year head coach Phil Longo, as KC Keeler has departed for Temple following 11 years at the helm. There’s plenty of turnover in the wake of that change, and a ton of new faces on the roster. The incoming group of transfers includes RB Alton McCaskill and WR Kaleb Black (both from Arizona State) and several redshirts and community college vets. It’ll be an interesting season, to say the least.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview

Over on the Western Kentucky side, overall, they were fairly successful last year if you’re just looking at the win/loss columns. That said, the Hilltoppers dropped a couple of big games at the end of the season to finish off on a major down note. WKU was looking great in early November with a 7-2 record, featuring road losses to only Alabama and Boston College.

Four losses ensued over the final five games, however, as the Hilltoppers would end up finishing 8-6 overall and 6-2 in Conference USA play. Western Kentucky dropped the conference championship game in a blowout 52-12 versus Jacksonville State, then fell in the Boca Raton Bowl 27-17 versus James Madison to end their campaign.

Looking ahead to 2025, the Hilltoppers will retain Tyson Helton in his seventh year as head coach. That said, WKU will have a fresh crop of assistants behind him, as the offensive coordinator and both defensive coordinators are in their first years with the program. Journeyman QB TJ Finley has bolted for Tulane after posting three games (and an injury) with WKU in 2024. Last year’s starting QB Caden Veltkamp is out as well; he’s gone to FAU.

Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win

• Western Kentucky has won each of its last six games against teams from Texas.
• Sam Houston State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
• Western Kentucky has covered the spread in three of its last four home openers.
• Western Kentucky has won the first quarter in five of its last six home games against conference opponents.

Why the Sam Houston State Bearkats will win

• Sam Houston State has won three of its last four games as an underdog.
• Western Kentucky has lost four of its last five games.
• Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games.
• The underdog has covered the spread in six of Sam Houston State’s last seven games.
• Western Kentucky has lost the first half in three of its last four games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Sam Houston State’s last six games against conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Six of Western Kentucky’s last seven home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• Western Kentucky ranked 131st among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game last season (221.2).
• Western Kentucky ranked 9th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game last season (176.1).
• Sam Houston State have had overturned the largest 1st quarter deficit to win a game last season – 22 points vs Texas State.
• Sam Houston State ranked 131st among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (4.1).

Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston State Prediction

I’m going to lean toward WKU, but this one’s a coin flip that you could call either way. There’s a ton of turnover on both sides here, so it’s anyone’s guess what the chemistry will look like on the field during this first action of the 2024 campaign. We’re sure to see some flashes of potential during this game, as well as some rust and inexperience amid sloppy play.

Both squads will likely be looking up at Liberty in the standings this season, however WKU seems to have a bit of an edge talent-wise. The Hilltoppers are rumored to be emphasizing a fast pace on offense in 2025, but it remains to be seen whether their offensive line can maintain form after plenty of turnover. The defense is bringing back just three starters this year as well, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the Bearkats on the other side.