Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest
July 4, 2021 12:00 pm EDT
We head to Coney Island for the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on the Fourth of July. This event debuted in 1916 and usually features 20 contestants who have 10 minutes to eat as many hot dogs and buns as possible. Last year, records were broken for both the men and women.
Let’s take a look at the betting odds and try to make some money.
Joey Chestnut Total Hot Dogs, Over 73.5 – Chestnut has eaten no less than 72 hot dogs in each of the last four years and is averaging 72.4 hot dogs during his five-year winning streak. Last year, Chestnut broke a world record with 75 hot dogs. He’s been consistent over the years and seems to be getting better. After last year, I can’t do anything but take the over.
Badlands Booker Total Hot Dogs, Over 20.5 – Badlands Booker ate 20 hot dogs last year and 28 hot dogs back in 2019. Throw in qualifying over the years, and Booker has eaten no less than 20 hot dogs in his last 34 tournaments. This number feels low and the fact we’re getting plus money with the over, I’ll take it.
Geoffrey Esper Total Hot Dogs, Under 47.5 – Geoffrey Esper is considered the second best eater in the world by MLE, but he hasn’t had a ton of success in this event. Esper ate 47 hot dogs in 2019, but he had 41 hot dogs in 2018, 44.5 hot dogs in 2017 and the remaining numbers dipped lower over the years. History suggests taking the under in this spot.
Joey Chestnut Total Hot Dogs Eaten, 73-74 – Remember, Chestnut is averaging 72.4 hot dogs during his five-year winning streak. We also locked in a bet where he’d eat over 73.5 hot dogs. This bet provides a little insurance on the half a hot dog and provides extra plus money if we land the number right on the nose. We’re getting +175 on this bet. I’ll take it.
Matt Stonie Total Hot Dogs Eaten, Over 44.5 – There’s potential rust with Matt Stonie considering he hasn’t been in a food competition since Halloween of last year. However, Stonie usually does well in this competition and is actually the guy who ended Chestnut’s eight-year winning streak in 2015 with 62 hot dogs. Stonie is averaging 49.8 hot dogs in his last five years. Rust or not, give me the over.
Joey Chestnut To Win, -5000 – Yes, laying these odds regularly doesn’t make much sense, but there’s no chance he doesn’t win this event yet again. Last year, Chestnut ate at least 33 more hot dogs than everybody else. He’s fresh off a world record. You’re not getting rich with these odds, but profit is profit, and there’s little to no risk.
