Thursday, February 18, 2021 at 6:30 AM (Riviera Country Club )
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The first round of the PGA Tour’s 2021 Genesis Invitational starts on Thursday morning.
Before I discuss my favorite longshot golf bets for this week, let’s take a look at the betting odds of past champions of this event to see if we can find any historical trends.
Here is a list of the last five winners of the Genesis Invitational including that golfer’s opening odds the week they won the event and the score that player posted to win:
2020 Adam Scott +3300 (-11)
2019 J.B. Holmes +15000 (-14)
2018 Bubba Watson +5000 (-12)
2017 Dustin Johnson +900 (-17)
2016 Bubba Watson +2500 (-15)
As I evaluated the key statistics of the previous winners of this week’s PGA Tour event noted above, it became apparent to me early on that all five players performed exceptionally well in one specific statistical category the year they won. Let me be more specific. The statistic I am making reference to is GIR (greens in regulation). Just to provide some perspective, the last five winners of the Genesis Invitational averaged hitting 71.4% of greens in regulation the week they won the event.
Clearly, golf bettors need to be looking for golfers for potential wagers that are capable of pounding greens in regulation at a high rate if they expect to cash winning tickets on Sunday night.
Now let's shift our focus to my longshot betting recommendations for the 2021 Genesis Invitational.
Here are two golfers to consider placing on your card to finish in the top ten.
Chez Reavie +1600 - The 39 year old American fired a final round 67 at last week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am en route to an eventual 16th place result. Addtionally, in relation to last week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field, Reavie ranked second in GIR (greens in regulation-77.8%) and eighth in driving accuracy (82.1%). I also like the fact that Reavie has performed well at the Genesis Invitational in the Past. Reavie finished tenth at the 2020 Genesis Invitational.
I should also remind readers that Chez Reavie has previously illustrated that he can perform at a high level in a talented field of golfers. Let us not forget that Reavie finished third at the 2019 U.S. Open.
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +1600 - Lee has two top 19 finishes in his last four events played on the PGA Tour, including a second place result at the Waste Management Phoenix Open two weeks ago. Lee also finished 13th at the 2020 Genesis Invitational.
In relation to this week’s current listed 2021 Genesis Invitational field, in the last eight rounds played on the PGA Tour, Lee ranks second in strokes gained around the green, 18th in birdie or better percentage, and 22nd in strokes gained tee to green.