2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Tour Golf Picks, Odds, Predictions 3/4/21

The PGA Tour travels to Windermere, Florida for the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Before I discuss my favorite golf bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational let’s take a look at the golf course the field will play and a few key facts that I think are relevant to the golf betting community this week.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational will be played at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge. The Bay Hill course is a par 72 that measures 7,454 yards. This track features rather wide fairways and bermuda grass greens. The course also has eight water hazards that are in play on nine of the holes. It should also be noted that Bay Hill has several long par three holes that average 217 yards in length.

For this event, my focus is on players that excel putting and scrambling. The conditions in Florida will likely present golfers with fast greens and firm conditions. Obviously, statistics such as GIR (greens in regulation) and driving accuracy are important this week. However, the fairways are wider here at Bay Hill. This makes ball striking not as much of a premium as it is for many golf courses on the PGA Tour.

Key Facts

Last year, the Bay Hill course ranked ninth out of 50 golf courses on the PGA Tour schedule in terms of difficulty.

In the eight previous Arnold Palmer Invitationals played at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge, the winning score has on average been 13.5 strokes under par.

Since 2016, the winner of the Arnold Palmer Invitational has finished, on average, sixth in strokes gained putting relative to the field the week that player won the event.

Now let’s turn our attention to my favorite golf bets for this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Here is a golfer to consider placing on your card to win.

Rory McIlroy +900 – McIlroy has outstanding previous event form at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. More specifically, Rory McIlroy has played the Arnold Palmer Invitational six times since 2015. In those six events played, McIlroy has five top 11 finishes, including a win in 2018. Rory also checks the box for me when it comes to current form. McIlroy fired a third round 66 at last week’s WGC Workday Championship @ Concession on his way to an eventual sixth place finish.

Here is a golfer to consider placing on your card to finish in the top five.

Matthew Fitzpatrick +550 – The 26 year old arrives at this week’s PGA Tour event on the heels of three consecutive top 17 finishes, including a fifth place finish at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Additionally, I like the fact that Fitzpatrick has played outstanding golf at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge in the past. Fitzpatrick finished second at the 2019 Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Here is a golfer to consider placing on your card to finish in the top ten.

Sam Burns +450 – Burns has three top 22 finishes in his last four events played on the PGA Tour, including a third place result at the Genesis Invitational.

In relation to this week’s current listed 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational field, in the last eight rounds played on the PGA Tour, Burns ranks fifth in strokes gained approach, seventh in strokes gained putting, and seventh in birdie or better percentage.