Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction 4/25/26 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Saturday in MLB action from Mexico City. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out German Marquez for the start here and Marquez is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 15 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Arizona, Marquez is 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 17 strikeouts. Zac Gallen will start here and is 1-1 with a 3.51 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Padres, Gallen is 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA and 29 strikeouts.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their 10-8 win over Colorado from their last matchup to improve to 17-8 this season. After this series, the Padres will head home for a series against the Chicago Cubs.

Padres Pick Up Another Series W

Jackson Merrill has 20 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs while Ramon Laureano has 24 hits with 4 doubles, 2 triples, 4 home runs and 17 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 23 hits with 4 doubles and 12 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 26 hits with 2 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 16 hits with 2 doubles, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs as well on the year.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to shake off a 4-1 loss at the hands of the White Sox last time out to sit at 14-11 on the year. After this series, Arizona will head on the road for a series against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Diamondbacks Drop 3 Of Last 4

Corbin Carroll has 21 hits including 6 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs and a team-high 16 RBIs while Alek Thomas has logged 7 doubles with 8 RBIs as well this season. Ketel Marte has 19 hits with 2 doubles, 4 home runs and 9 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 17 hits, with 3 doubles, a home run and 5 RBIs as well this season. Gabriel Moreno also has 11 hits with 5 doubles and Jose Fernandez has 19 hits with 2 home runs and 9 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 22 hits with 5 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs.

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: April 25, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zac Gallen      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 3.51
• Home Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Padres: 3-1

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won five of their last six games following a loss.
• The Padres have lost five of their last six day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games following a win.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: German Marquez      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 3.86
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 1-1

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last eight games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won each of their last 10 Saturday games.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Saturday games.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 Saturday day games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven day games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won the first inning in five of their last six day games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last eight games as underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Padres and Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Zac Gallen has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 13 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Zac Gallen has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances with the Diamondbacks as favorites against NL West opponents.
• James McCann has recorded at least one hit in eight of his last nine appearances in day games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Corbin Carroll ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.580) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded two or more hits in each of the Padres’ last four games as underdogs against the Diamondbacks.
• German Marquez has recorded three or more strikeouts in 30 of his last 33 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (9).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (65).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (16).
• The Padres rank 4th in the league for runs allowed this season (95).

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the over in this game. I just think these international series games have a tendency to be higher-scoring and with a highly questionable starting pitching matchup to go along with it, I don’t really see that changing here. These are two offenses that can put runs up as well so I’ll roll with the over in this one.