Astros vs Orioles Prediction 8/17/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate an Astros vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 17th at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 69-54 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 0-7 and 5-4. In their game two win, Houston blew a 4-2 lead in the eighth inning, but they scored the only run in extra innings for the victory. The Astros recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Melton, Dubon, Urias, Altuve, and Correa, who all had one RBI in the win. Houston started Alexander, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Sousa blew the save and De Los Santos got the win. 

Prior to this series, the Astros won two out of three against the Red Sox and two out of three against the Yankees. Houston has won seven of their last eleven games and they are currently first in the AL West standings. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 530 runs with a .256 batting average and a .321 on base percentage this season. Jose Altuve has led Houston with 22 home runs and 64 RBIs, while Yanier Diaz has added 17 home runs and 53 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Cristian Javier, who is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this year. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 56-67 this season after they lost game two by a score of 5-4 in extra innings on Saturday. Baltimore tied the game at four in the eighth inning, but they couldn’t score in the 10th, 11th, or 12th inning for the loss. The Orioles recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Holliday and Carlson, who both had two RBIs in the loss. Baltimore started Garcia, who was an opener, while Povich allowed five hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings as the bulk pitcher. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles won two out of three against the Mariners, but did lose two out of three against the Athletics before that. Baltimore has won three of their last four games and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.73 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a .262 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 525 runs with a .239 batting average and a .303 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 15 home runs and 47 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 14 home runs and 53 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, who is 8-9 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 140.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Astros will beat the Orioles

• The Orioles have lost five of their last six games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have won five of their last six home games after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against American League opponents after going to extra innings.
• The Astros have covered the run line in three of their last four games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against the Orioles.

Why the Orioles will beat the Astros

• The Astros have lost each of their last seven games as favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The Orioles have won four of their last five games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line each of their last 16 games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have won the first inning in four of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Orioles’ last seven games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Astros’ last six home games following an extra innings win have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Orioles’ last nine games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Astros’ last nine day games against AL East opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jose Altuve has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against the Orioles after playing the previous day.
• Cristian Javier has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances in day games.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances in day games.
• Cristian Javier has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Dylan Carlson has hit a home run in three of his four previous appearances at Daikin Park against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Dean Kremer has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Dean Kremer has recorded a win in each of his three previous appearances with the Orioles as underdogs against the Astros.
• Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Orioles as underdogs against the Astros.
• Adley Rutschman has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.

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Astros vs Orioles Prediction

Baltimore’s offense fell asleep in extra innings on Saturday night, but they will look to bounce back here. The Orioles are 26-37 on the road this year, while the Astros are 38-26 at home. Houston has been inconsistent recently and they are starting Javier, who is making his second start of the season due to injury. The O’s are starting Kremer, who has allowed 1, 4, 3, and 5 earned runs in his last four outings. I think the offenses will get going here and I don’t fully trust Javier yet, so take the over in this game.