Astros vs Rays Prediction 7/4/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate an Astros vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 4th at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 43-47 this year after they lost game one by a score of 3-1 last night. Houston tied the game at one in the sixth inning, but they couldn’t score anymore runs for the loss. The Astros recorded three hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Alvarez, who went 1-4 with one home run and one RBI. Arrighetti allowed two hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Okert picked up the loss. Prior to this series, Houston lost two out of three against the Twins, but did win three out of four against the Tigers before that. 

This season, Houston has a 4.75 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while they have scored 401 runs with a .241 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez has led the Astros with 27 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Christian Walker has added 19 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Hunter Brown, who is 1-0 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 25.1 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 52-33 this season after they won game one by a score of 3-1 on Friday night. Tampa Bay blew a 1-0 lead in the sixth inning, but they scored once in the seventh and eighth to get the win. The Rays recorded five hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Fortes, who went 2-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Martinez allowed three hits and one earned run over 5.1 innings, while Kelly got the win and Baker picked up the save. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay swept the Royals in three games and swept the Diamondbacks in three games. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.68 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while they have scored 388 runs with a .260 batting average and a .338 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with 13 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Junior Caminero has added 25 home runs and 55 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Drew Rasmussen, who is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP over 92.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won six of their last seven games following a home loss.
• The Rays have lost six of their last seven night games at Daikin Park following a road win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last nine games.
• The Astros have lost four of their last five games as home favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last 10 games between the Rays and Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 games as favorites following a loss.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last seven night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Astros’ last nine home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Rays’ last eight games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Astros’ last six Saturday games at Daikin Park.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last two games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Hunter Brown has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Hunter Brown has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.625) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Junior Caminero has hit at least one home run in seven of the Rays’ last eight games.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five road appearances.
• Junior Caminero has recorded a hit in each of the Rays’ last nine games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (101) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank T29th in the league for steals this season (28).
• The Astros rank T28th in the league for triples this season (6).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (603).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (232).

Astros vs Rays Prediction 

Tampa Bay continued their winning streak on Friday night and they have allowed two runs or fewer in four of their last five games. The Rays are 21-21 on the road this year, while the Astros are 21-24 at home. Houston has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed 5+ runs in three of their last five. The Astros are starting Brown, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, while Rasmussen has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. Take the under here.