Cincinnati Reds (20-21) vs. Houston Astros (19-19)
May 11, 2025 2:10 pm EDT
The Line: Houston Astros -155 / Cincinnati Reds 130; Over/Under: 8.5
(Get latest betting odds)
In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 11, at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds (20-21, 11-11 Away) failed to win their previous three series. They split with the Cardinals and lost to the Nationals and Braves. Following a 3-0 Game 1 loss to the Astros in Houston, the Reds responded with a 13-9 victory in an unexpected high-scoring affair. Elly De La Cruz led the team with four RBI, while Brady Singer pitched for 2.1 innings in a no-decision, allowing seven runs on nine hits with one strikeout and one walk. Graham Ashcraft was credited with the win.
This year, the Reds average 4.83 runs per game (8th in the MLB) on a .242/.325/.383 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Reds’ staff has a 3.71 ERA (9th) and 1.16 WHIP (6th). Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with a .250 batting average, six home runs, and 29 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Reds is Chase Petty, who is 0-1 in one start this season, with a 34.71 ERA and 3.86 WHIP in 2.1 innings.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Houston Astros (19-19, 12-8 Home) lost the last two series against the White Sox and Brewers and now are trying to avoid the third consecutive loss after falling to a 13-9 defeat in Game 2 of the series against the Reds. Jeremy Pena, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz, and Victor Caratini led the offense with two RBI apiece, while Lance McCullers took the loss as he lasted only 0.1 innings, during which he allowed seven runs on three hits with no strikeouts and three walks.
This year, the Astros average 4.13 runs per game (19th in the MLB) on a .247/.318/.375 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Astros’ staff has a 3.53 ERA (8th) and 1.16 WHIP (3rd). Jeremy Pena leads the Astros with a .288 batting average, five home runs, and 19 RBI this season.
Ronel Blanco will take the mound for the Astros on Sunday. The 31-year-old right-hander has a 2-3 record in seven starts this year with a 4.98 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 34.1 innings.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Astros’ last nine day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Reds’ last 10 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last six Sunday day games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Astros’ last six home games against NL Central opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Astros rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (299).
- The Astros are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
- The Reds rank T4th in the league for walks this season (157).
- The Reds rank 5th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.220).
Astros vs Reds Prediction
The Reds won nine of the previous ten H2H encounters, and that lone Astros’ win came in Game 1 of this series. I was surprised by a high-scoring Game 2, but considering the pitching matchup for this one, I am going with another Over. Chase Petty was dismantled in his first-ever start in the MLB, and although I believe the rookie will fare better on Sunday, I still think the Astros will cause him trouble. Ronel Blanco, on the other hand, allowed multiple runs in all but one start this year, so the Reds will have a chance to score a few runs early on. Back the Over.
