Astros vs Reds Prediction 5/10/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Reds Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, May 10^th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 21-19 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL Central. They have a 11-9 home record and are coming off a 3-1 win at home against the Astros. They will face the Nationals and the Guardians next.

The Reds have a .218 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .378 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .277 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 29. Sal Stewart adds a team‑high 10 home runs.

Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 1-2 record, 5.13 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 16-24 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the AL West. They have a 7-14 away record and are coming off a 1-3 loss on the road against the Reds. They will face the Mariners and the Rangers next.

The Astros have a .261 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .436 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 5.56 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .327 batting average, also adding a team‑high 13 home runs. Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 27.

Kai-Wei Teng (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 1-2 record, 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: May 10, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 5.13
• Home Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The home team has won nine of the Reds’ last 10 games.
• The Astros have lost seven of their last eight games at Great American Ball Park.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Astros following a win.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kai-Wei Teng      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 2.35
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Reds: –

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Reds have lost eight of their last nine games.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine Sunday games against the Reds.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Reds’ last nine games as favorites against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Astros’ last five games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last six road games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six games between the Astros and Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last eight home games against AL opponents.
• Will Benson has hit a home run in four of his last eight appearances with the Reds as favorites against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Yordan Alvarez has hit a home run in five of his last six appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Astros as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.432) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.218).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (289).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (77).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.56).

Astros vs Reds Prediction

The Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Astros and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Cincinnati.

In this Astros vs Reds Prediction, the Reds are coming as -125 home favorites. The Reds finally ended a lengthy winning streak yesterday and I like them today as well, as Andrew Abbott is coming off a shutout win and I don’t trust Kai-Wei Teng for the Astros, who also have the league’s worst bullpen to come after him. On top of that, Houston is weaker against left-handed pitching, so everything points towards another Reds win in this matchup.