Atlanta Braves vs NY Mets Prediction 9-30-24 MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Atlanta Braves vs NY Mets prediction for this MLB doubleheader on Monday, September 30th at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this doubleheader. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 88-72 this season and they have won five of their last six games. Atlanta is coming off of a series win against Kansas City, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Braves won one game against the Mets, won two out of three against the Marlins, and won two out of three against the Reds. Atlanta is 9-5 in their last 14 games and they are tied for second in the NL East. 

The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.48 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 694 runs with a .243 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .304 with 39 home runs and 102 RBI’s for the Braves this season. 

NY Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 88-72 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. New York is coming off of a series loss against Milwaukee, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Mets lost one game against the Braves, won three out of four against the Phillies, and swept the Nationals. New York is 7-4 in their last 11 games and they are tied for second in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .229 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 760 runs with a .247 batting average and a .320 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .240 with 34 home runs and 88 RBI’s for the Mets this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta in game one is Spencer Schwellenbach, who is 8-7 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP over 116.2 innings pitched this year. Schwellenbach has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for the Braves in game two is Chris Sale, who is 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 177.2 innings pitched this year. Sale has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 18 straight starts. 

The projected starting pitcher for game one for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 72.1 innings pitched this year. Megill has allowed a total of one earned run in his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for game two for New York is Luis Severino, who is 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 182.0 innings pitched this year. Severino has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts. 

Why the Braves will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost eight of their last nine games at Truist Park following a win.
• The Braves have won eight of their last nine home games against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games on the first leg of a doubleheader.
• The Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against the Mets following a loss.

Why the Mets will beat the Braves

• The Braves have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Mets have won each of their last four games as road underdogs on the first leg of a doubleheader.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line each of their last nine Monday day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games at Truist Park against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last 13 home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last four games as underdogs against the Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last eight games between the Mets and Braves.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last three games as road underdogs.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 home appearances against the Mets.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Braves’ last eight games against the Mets at Truist Park.
• Michael Harris has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one Single in 17 of his last 18 home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Matt Olson has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last three day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 home appearances against the Mets.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored a run in each of his last six appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a winning record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Mets’ last six games against NL East opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last 20 games.
• J.D. Martinez has hit at least one home run in two of his last three road appearances against the Braves.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 20 games.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last nine day games.
• Jesse Winker has scored at least one run in each of his last nine Monday appearances with his team as an underdog.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.48).
• The Atlanta Braves rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1535).
• The New York Mets rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.229).
• The New York Mets rank 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (1214).

Atlanta Braves vs NY Mets Prediction 

These two teams come into this double header fighting to make the postseason and each team needs one win to clinch a wild card. If either team loses both games, they are eliminated and the Diamondbacks are in. The pitching matchups for game one are set, but expect the team that wins game one to rest their scheduled starter for game two. In game one, both starting pitchers have been very solid, but I give the edge to Atlanta at home. If the Braves win game one, they will sit Chris Sale, so I will side with the Mets in game two.