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Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 7-5-24 Picks

Philadelphia Phillies (57-30) vs. Atlanta Braves (47-38)
July 5, 2024 7:20 pm EDT
The Line: Atlanta Braves -141 / Philadelphia Phillies +119; Over/Under: +7.5
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In this article we will formulate an Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 5th at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game one in the series.

Braves Look to Bounce Back 

The Atlanta Braves are 47-38 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. Atlanta is coming off of a series loss against San Francisco, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Braves won two out of three against the Pirates, lost a makeup game against the White Sox, and lost two out of three against the Cardinals. Atlanta is 3-5 in their last eight games and they are second in the NL East. 

The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.47 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 362 runs with a .243 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .296 with 21 home runs and 67 RBI’s for the Braves this season. Atlanta has scored three runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. 

Phillies Continue to Lead the NL East 

The Philadelphia Phillies are 57-30 this year and they have won three of their last four games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against the Cubs, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Phillies split four games with the Marlins, won two out of three against the Tigers, and won two out of three against the Diamondbacks. Philadelphia is 8-4 in their last 12 games and they have a nine game lead in the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .226 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 433 runs with a .258 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Nick Castellanos is batting .236 with 12 home runs and 43 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. Philadelphia has scored at least five runs in six of their last twelve games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Max Fried, who is 7-3 with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 96.0 innings pitched this year. Fried has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 9-4 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 107.2 innings pitched this season. Nola has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.

Why the Phillies will beat the Braves

  • The Phillies have won each of their last seven games against NL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Braves have lost five of their last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
  • The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents following a loss.
  • The Braves have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Braves’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • Seven of the Phillies’ last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last seven night games against NL East opponents.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Adam Duvall has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
  • Adam Duvall has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances against the Phillies.
  • Max Fried has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 14 home appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 home appearances against NL opponents.
  • Ramon Laureano has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL opponents.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in 18 of his last 19 Friday appearances.
  • Michael Harris has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Double in eight of the Phillies’ last nine road games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Aaron Nola has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against NL opponents.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight road appearances against NL opponents.
  • Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with the Phillies as underdogs against NL East opponents.
  • David Dahl has hit a home run in each of his four previous appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances.
  • David Dahl has recorded two or more RBIs in each of his four previous appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances.
  • Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

These two teams come into this series as the top two teams in the NL East, but Philadelphia has a massive lead and they are on cruise control. The Phillies are 24-16 on the road, while the Braves are 27-16 at home. This should be a great series between two solid teams, but the Atlanta offense has been very inconsistent over the last month. The Braves do have a slight edge with Fried on the mound, but Nola is a fine option and the Phillies lineup is way more dangerous. My Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction is for the Phillies to pick up the win. 

David Racey's Free Pick: Phillies ML

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David Racey

David started writing about sports in 2015, but sports has been his passion for as long as he can remember. David spends most of his free time watching pretty much anything sports related from Baseball to Tennis and everything in between. David likes to analyze statistics and recent results to form an unbiased opinion on whatever game he is breaking down. Follow David on Twitter at @itsyerboi41

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