Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction 9/21/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, September 21^st in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 75-81 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the AL East. They have a 36-42 home record and are coming off a 0-3 home loss against the Brewers and will face the Yankees next.

The Baltimore Orioles have a .234 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .394 Slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Pete Alonso is the team’s best hitter with a .264 batting average, leading the team in RBI with 105 and adding a team-high 38 home runs.

Shane Baz (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, and he has a 6-15 record, 4.11 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 77-79 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the AL East. They have a 37-41 away record and are coming off a 7-2 road win against the Rangers and will face the Reds next.

The Toronto Blue Jays have a .248 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .383 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Ernie Clement is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average. Kazuma Okamoto leads the team in RBI with 89, adding a team-high 33 home runs.

Trey Yesavage (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 5-5 record, 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends: September 21, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz      Record this season: 6-15      ERA: 4.11
• Home Record: 4-7
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 2-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won nine of their last 10 night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last five road games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL opponents.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last four games as home favorites against AL opponents following a loss.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Trey Yesavage      Record this season: 5-5      ERA: 3.65
• Road Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Orioles: 0-1

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The road team has won each of the Orioles’ last six games.
• The Orioles have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last nine games between the Blue Jays and Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Blue Jays’ last four games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last four night games between the Blue Jays and Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in three of the Orioles’ last four night games.
• Shane Baz has recorded a win in three of his four previous home appearances against the Blue Jays.
• Samuel Basallo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Shane Baz has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his 11 previous home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso ranks 8th in the league in Home Runs (38) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Kazuma Okamoto has hit a home run in four of the Blue Jays’ last six night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Blue Jays as underdogs.
• Trey Yesavage has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his four previous appearances with the Blue Jays as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Kazuma Okamoto ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1464).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for batting average this season (.234).
• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Blue Jays rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (629).

Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction

The Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Orioles but have lost their last two meetings in Baltimore.

In this Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction, the Orioles are coming as -110 home favorites. The Orioles are coming off Sunday night baseball which is auto-fade. They also one loss away from being officially eliminated from the playoffs, so I will side with the Jays in this one, who they also need the win in order to stay alive in the wild card run. Yesavage had just one earned run in his two starts before his injury and has been better on the road, while Shane Baz has given up 3+ runs in three of his last four starts and the Orioles were shut out in back-to-back games. Take the Jays to win this one.