Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction 9/23/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction for this MLB matchup on Wednesday, September 23^rd in the second and third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 76-81 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the AL East. They have a 37-42 home record and are coming off a 4-3 home win against the Blue Jays. They will face the Yankees next.

The Baltimore Orioles have a .234 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .395 Slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Pete Alonso is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average, leading the team in RBI with 108 and adding a team-high 40 home runs.

Chris Bassitt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, and he has a 8-5 record, 4.64 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 77-80 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the AL East. They have a 37-42 away record and are coming off a 4-3 road loss against the Orioles. They will face the Reds next.

The Toronto Blue Jays have a .248 batting average this season, .310 OBP and .382 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 3.92 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Ernie Clement is the team’s best hitter with a .264 batting average. Kazuma Okamoto leads the team in RBI with 89, adding a team-high 33 home runs.

Max Scherzer (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 3-8 record, 6.07 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends: September 23, 2026: Game 1

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt      Record this season: 8-5      ERA: 4.64
• Home Record: 3-2
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won seven of their last eight home games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have lost four of their last five road games.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four road games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight day games against the Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Wednesday day home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer      Record this season: 3-8      ERA: 6.07
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Orioles: 0-3

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last 10 day games following a loss.
• The Orioles have lost five of their last six games as favorites against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in each of their last three home games against AL opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the last 10 games between the Blue Jays and Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Blue Jays’ last eight games as underdogs against the Orioles have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Max Scherzer’s last eight appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Orioles’ last nine day games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit at least one home run in each of the Orioles’ last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Colton Cowser has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded four or more strikeouts in 28 of his last 29 home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (40) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Max Scherzer has recorded five or more strikeouts in 36 of his last 39 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Blue Jays as underdogs.
• Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in each of his last three appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 28th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1474).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for hits this season (1224).
• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for RBIs this season (601).

Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction

The Blue Jays are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Orioles but have lost their last three visits in Baltimore.

In this Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction, the Orioles are coming as -120 home favorites. I like the Orioles to keep rolling at home as long as they have a mathematical chance for the wild card spot. Bassitt has been solid at home with a 3.53 ERA, while Scherzer has been shaky at best. The Orioles’ bullpen has been in excellent form lately and have been much better against right-handed pitching than the Jays in their last 5 games. Take the Orioles to win Game 1 of the double header at home. There are not pitchers announced for the second game of the double header, but the Jays will put a better pitcher than Scherzer and if they lose in the first game, I will go with the Jays in the second one.