Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction 10/7/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, October 7^th at the Yankee Stadium in Game 3 of this ALDS series, with the Blue Jays having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Yankees Preview

The New York Yankees finished the regular season with a 96-69 record and were placed second in the AL East. The Yankees have a 52-32 home record and are 78-84 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-13 road defeat by the Blue Jays in Game 2, and have back-to-back losses. Under is 5-2 in their last 7 games.

The Yankees have a .251 batting average this season, .332 OBP and .455 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 8 hits in the postseason, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .444 batting average. Cody Bellinger leads the team both in RBI, with 4 and in home runs, with one.

Carlos Rodon (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees, and he has a 0-0 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in the postseason.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays finished the regular season with a 94-68 record and were placed first in the AL East. They have a 40-41 road record, and are 88-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 13-7 home victory over the Yankees, and have six consecutive wins. Over is 3-0 in their last 3 games.

The Blue Jays have a .265 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Blue Jays with 6 hits, adding a team-high 6 RBI and two home runs. Daulton Varsho is the team’s best hitter with a .750 batting average.

Shane Bieber (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays, and he has a 4-2 record, 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: October 7, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 18-9      ERA: 3.13
• Home Record: 10-4
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-3

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last six road playoff games.
• The home team has won each of the Blue Jays’ last six games.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road playoff games.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last six games.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in each of their last eight Tuesday games.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 3.57
• Road Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Yankees: 1-2

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Yankees have lost each of their last four games as favorites against the Blue Jays following a road loss.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs following a home win.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 playoff games after not playing the previous day.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Yankees’ last nine home games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Blue Jays’ last seven road games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Blue Jays’ last 10 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six night games between the Blue Jays and Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Anthony Volpe has recorded a Double in five of his last six appearances against the Blue Jays after not playing the previous day.
• Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in nine of his last 12 home appearances.
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit a home run in 10 of his last 18 playoff appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Carlos Rodon has recorded five or more strikeouts in 27 of his last 28 appearances with the Yankees as home favorites.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last nine games as favorites.
• Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.331) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in three of the Blue Jays’ last four games.
• Shane Bieber has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances.
• Shane Bieber has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog against AL East opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against AL opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• George Springer ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (849).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (274).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1461).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).

Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction

The Blue Jays are 9-3 in their last 12 meetings against the Yankees, but the Yankees are 2-1 in their last 3 meetings in New York.

In this Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction, the Yankees are coming as -155 home favorites. The Yankees are facing elimination at home, after getting destroyed in the two games in Toronto with a combined 23-8 score. They put Rodon on the mound, who is coming off back-to-back starts where he gave up 3 runs, and Bieber has been in better form lately for the Blue Jays. Toronto has a better bullpen and are better against left-handed pitching, so I will definitely not lay -155 with the Yankees in this matchup. The value here lies with the road dog, so take the Toronto Blue Jays and the plus money in this one.